Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

[Brent]

That helps narrow it down

Right but that signal is pretty crazy

Im just waiting for the NHC to put it in the outlook

 

[lexxnchloe]

JB says it. Watch the eastern GOM. Very often when a major cane threatens the US a weak storm forms ahead of it

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

I dont think Rick Knabb has seen the latest GFS. He is talking about ridging all across the ATL when the ridge is replaced with a trof off the coast. Also, he just said the models are showing this latest rain and trof over the SE is the last and the pattern is going to change. However, the 18Z GFS shows a repeat of the pattern with yet another trof-low over the SE with lots of rain.

 

[NoSnowATL]

OTS

 

[SD]

Pattern change

 

[lexxnchloe]

AI went way SW from hatteras to New Orleans

 

[Brent]

We got a circle

But yes the amount of African storms that actually make it to the US is a very very very small list

 

[vtrap90]

JB says it. Watch the eastern GOM. Very often when a major cane threatens the US a weak storm forms ahead of it

That's like saying during peak hurricane season, of all times of the year for this to happen, that a tropical storm is followed by a hurricane that's followed by another tropical storm that is once again followed by a major hurricane with only one of them making landfall.

 

[vtrap90]

If I could find some 360 hours maps to post I would but they have all been posted already.

 

[jeremyt]

Yeah and the 6z went from hatteras to Texas at the 12z. It’s comical at this point! Let the storm form first then worry about tracking! Especially with the GFS.

 

[Brent]

Yeah and the 6z went from hatteras to Texas at the 12z. It’s comical at this point! Let the storm form first then worry about tracking! Especially with the GFS.

The GFS just went from Texas to Bermuda in one run

Stop taking it seriously

 

[Gopack42]

The models are like my ex wife. "This is going to destroy our lives. Nevermind. It's not that big of a deal. Except that it's going to ruin our life. But it's really nothing. I overreacted. But it will kill us".

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON further north because it now also develops 96L

Any model that develops 96 will be a recurve




12Z

 

[vtrap90]

Nice video @Mitch West

 

[lexxnchloe]

So far the GFS isnt developing 96 so the storm is further south

0Z




18Z

 

[jrips27]

0z GFS is noticeably south of 18z by day 6. Will probably have a CONUS hit somewhere this run

 

[Mike_96]

0z GFS is noticeably south of 18z by day 6. Will probably have a CONUS hit somewhere this run

Yep. The ridging this run looks crazy.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UK has it again and it’s stronger (TS) though it’s further N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.0N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2025 132 22.0N 54.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.3N 57.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 156 25.5N 59.1W 1007 41
0000UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.8N 61.6W 1006 44

 

[jrips27]

1 week from now

 

[jrips27]

945mb lurking east of the Bahamas at 240. Last few frames it was turning NNW but looks like the ridge is starting to build back in over the east coast so wonder if we will see a move back towards the SE coastline

 

[Mike_96]

945mb lurking east of the Bahamas at 240. Last few frames it was turning NNW but looks like the ridge is starting to build back in over the east coast so wonder if we will see a move back towards the SE coastline
View attachment 174034

Exactly what happened..

 

[jrips27]

945ish heading into Morehead City. Still 11-12 days away but obviously this would be bad

 

[jrips27]

Exactly what happened..

Yeah wasn’t a crazy bend back northwest but it was enough to get a NC landfall.

 

[accu35]

let the late nights begin

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: MH passes 150 miles E of NC 8/21 and then hits Cape Cod/E ME 8/22-3 as weakening H.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Development much more likely since now there is a storm behind it showing things will indeed be favorable

 

[lexxnchloe]

EURO also showing another followup storm

 

[lexxnchloe]

All three within a handful of miles of each other

 

[JHS]

6z GFS is a miss. It stays well offshore.

 

[lexxnchloe]

6z GFS is a miss. It stays well offshore.

AI is also a non-entity. At least the AI has something more interesting at the end of the run

 

[Brent]

Looking very good on satellite code orange in the outlook already

 

[Brent]

 

[lexxnchloe]

CFS has had the aug/sept pattern nailed for awhile now. Shows nothing of interest thru Sept 10

 

[FallsLake]

I'm more of a cool weather lover, so what the GFS is showing the last couple of runs. The 0z has a tropical storm quickly becoming extra-tropical as it hits the NC coast (as shown above). Because of the transition it's able to pull down cool/dry temps. 0z GFS day 13 dewpoints:


The 6z run keeps the storm farther off the coast but still helps pull down cool/dry air. You can guess what outcome I'm pulling for...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Looking very good on satellite code orange in the outlook alreadyView attachment 174041

Makes it more likely it stays OTS based off the models I believe, which would be for the better, but if it doesn't, there's Irma and Florence, with both having been problematic.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I'm more of a cool weather lover, so what the GFS is showing the last couple of runs. The 0z has a tropical storm quickly becoming extra-tropical as it hits the NC coast (as shown above). Because of the transition it's able to pull down cool/dry temps. 0z GFS day 13 dewpoints:

View attachment 174044
The 6z run keeps the storm farther off the coast but still helps pull down cool/dry air. You can guess what outcome I'm pulling for...

CFS has lots of very cool dry air for AUG-Sept/

 

[lexxnchloe]

Makes it more likely it stays OTS based off the models I believe, which would be for the better, but if it doesn't, there's Irma and Florence, with both having been problematic.

Im hoping it intensifies quickly so it can move out and get out of the way.

 

[NCSNOW]

All three within a handful of miles of each other


View attachment 174039

Aka. 1954 pattern JB was showing