Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON thru 120

 

[lexxnchloe]

198. I know this wont happen but this would be a bit rainy








In 30 hours it moves 1.827 miles

 

[lexxnchloe]

222 and its still barely moved

 

[Brent]

Keeps getting further east though

View attachment 148997

Probably too far west yeah

I'm still waiting for this storm to get it's act together first though

 

[lexxnchloe]

Probably too far west yeah

I'm still waiting for this storm to get it's act together first though

True. ICON and Euro seem less impressive each run

 

[Henry2326]

True. ICON and Euro seem less impressive each run

No worries....If it doesn't blowup, there is another one right behind it.

 

[lexxnchloe]

No worries....If it doesn't blowup, there is another one right behind it.

View attachment 149009

That looks like climatology for mid Aug and could have been put out in April. Nothing in the MDR thru Aug16 on GFS

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON heads more to the GFS and starts development to the west of FLAand ends up here

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS is very weird. it gets up here and tries to develop





Then goes SE then NW and ends up here

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: way west (TCG 150 miles S of LA tip and moves NNW into LA) and pretty weak:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 27.0N 89.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2024 120 27.0N 89.3W 1011 31
0000UTC 06.08.2024 132 28.6N 90.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 06.08.2024 144 30.0N 90.5W 1011 30
0000UTC 07.08.2024 156 30.8N 91.0W 1009 27
1200UTC 07.08.2024 168 31.5N 90.7W 1010 28

 

[lexxnchloe]

Meanwhile the MDR is still bone dry

 

[accu35]

12Z UKMET: way west (TCG 150 miles S of LA tip and moves NNW into LA) and pretty weak:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 27.0N 89.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2024 120 27.0N 89.3W 1011 31
0000UTC 06.08.2024 132 28.6N 90.2W 1009 29
1200UTC 06.08.2024 144 30.0N 90.5W 1011 30
0000UTC 07.08.2024 156 30.8N 91.0W 1009 27
1200UTC 07.08.2024 168 31.5N 90.7W 1010 28

It’s hard to ignore the GFS and UKMET that brings it further west into the gulf. Both has been consistent just like the Euro has on the east coast.

 

[snowc]

A lot more SC/NC hits on the 12z Euro ensemble vs 00zView attachment 148981View attachment 148979

Oh well, looks like another Isaias for me. Blah!

 

[lexxnchloe]

Somebody needs to tell the MDR we are having a hyper active season, though tracking cloudless waves is a bit exciting

 

[Skippy The Brat]

 

[jrips27]

Did the Euro just cave to the GFS?

 

[lexxnchloe]

Did the Euro just cave to the GFS?

I dont know

 

[Snowfan]

Did the Euro just cave to the GFS?

Sorta. Both has it stalling off of the W coast of Florida but the Euro has going it to the East Coast after that while the GFS has it hitting the Gulf Coast after that.

 

[GaWx]

Is there any model that doesn’t at least get into the Gulf now? Euro, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, and JMA all do with at least GFS and UKMET never going back into the Atlantic. Still waiting on brand new JMA.