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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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GaWx said:
Is there any model that doesn’t at least get into the Gulf now? Euro, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, and JMA all do with at least GFS and UKMET never going back into the Atlantic
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As far as models go I still say wait until a llc forms. Weaker is west, stronger will go north. That was the issue I had with the euro being east previously!
 
Henry2326 said:
No worries....If it doesn't blowup, there is another one right behind it.

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You have wayyyyy too much faith in the operational models. Take them all with a grain of salt until something develops. For Beryl, none of them were right this far out or close in. The NHC averages all the models.
I watch everything I can get my hands on and then shrug.
The global tropics outlook reviews what's sitting over Africa now and will be coming into the Atlantic....it's not just make believe climatology.
 
Like I'm going to be right I said that the other computer models were going to curve to the GFS model and it looks like it.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I dont think so, If it were 945mb passing that close to land it might pull in a nice cool dry airmass behind it.
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Weak is always good. But again, the operational models are horrible at strength before a storm actually happens and many times afterward. Beryl was a cat4 and the models had it at a 2, other than HWRF which performed exceptionally well.
 
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