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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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Chazwin said:
I remember that storm just come to a stop and basically drifted around just east of the Outer Banks for a week before the steering finally pulled it into the coast near the NC/SC border. Dianne in 1983 I think stalled out for a couple days as well
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Dennis was one of the most bizarre storms to ever approach the East Coast. I remember that it helped set the stage for the flooding in Eastern North Carolina that Floyd caused later that year.

One of the most unusual fishing experiences I have ever had occurred when Dennis was approaching the coast on its first run. Me and one of my friends took a john boat out to a pond we regularly fished back then. I have never seen fish bite like that before. Every cast we made we caught a fish with the beetle spins and rooster tails we were using. I had laid one of my fishing rods in the boat with the lure hanging out of the water and fish were jumping out of the water trying to grab it! We must have caught over 100 fish in a hour that day. We threw them all back. The fish in that pond knew something was in the air weather wise.
 
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Chazwin said:
I remember that storm just come to a stop and basically drifted around just east of the Outer Banks for a week before the steering finally pulled it into the coast near the NC/SC border. Dianne in 1983 I think stalled out for a couple days as well
Click to expand...

Dianna … I was in college in Wilmington … wasn’t t that like 84-85?


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Even though we haven’t seen the GoM style rapid intensification on the Atlantic seaboard this kind of potential track makes me nervous. A storm developing close to the coast and coming from the south could make for a very bad day in the coastal SC counties. Poor building practices until 2012-2014 and over 50% of the population in Horry and Charleston counties are products of internal migration and have never experienced anything beyond a decaying Category 1 storm at the coast. Add in a naturally panic-prone aging population and it’s a recipe for disaster. We all still remember the Floyd evacuation fiasco. We don’t have any new east-west roads and population has doubled.
 
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
A large tropical wave centered a few hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity.
While development has been slow to occur due to dry air,
environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while
the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the
Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the
southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
0Z UKMET: well W of 12Z run with it stalling in NE Gulf 50 miles S of Destin:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.2N 85.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 108 24.2N 85.0W 1009 30
0000UTC 05.08.2024 120 25.9N 86.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.1N 86.3W 1008 34
0000UTC 06.08.2024 144 28.8N 86.3W 1007 39
1200UTC 06.08.2024 156 29.5N 86.6W 1007 38
0000UTC 07.08.2024 168 29.7N 86.5W 1005 28
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z JMA was also NE Gulf with landfall of weak low in FL panhandle.

0Z GFS a H in AL/W FL panhandle.

So, 3 of 6 latest models’ runs in NE Gulf: UK, JMA, GFS.

My gut says this will end up an exclusively Gulf storm.
Click to expand...
CMC was west a little also
 
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