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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

Funny...12Z Goofus wants to do this:

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The GEFS doesn't agree. I wants to just have spokes breaking off and crossing Cuba headed NNE to ENE. Such a long dart throw for the operational side.
 
Changed the circle.....looks like a gulf thang....50%

two_atl_7d0 (8).png

200 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Looks like NHC is buying into the direction of the ensemble.

two_atl_7d0 (9).png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. North Atlantic:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 400 miles
west of the western Azores is producing limited shower activity.
Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves
generally eastward during the next few days. Additional information
on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
 
SD said:
It's hard to believe this thread is going to be the most active one to start November
Click to expand...
The storm numbers that the National Hurricane Center predicted before hurricane season started may come closer to verifying than thought a couple of months ago when we had that lull during what is usually peak hurricane season. With the abnormally warm weather the Southeast is seeing, I would not be surprised to see a tropical storm or hurricane during December this year
 
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