Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[MichaelAndrews]

 

[Brent]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Henry2326]

The last 5 runs of the GFS had no ots solutions.
2 were in the corner....mimicking Helene.
1 in the panhandle FL
1 lower west coast FL
1in Cuba, headed to west coast of FL.

 

[Brent]

Only 5 hurricanes have hit the US after November 1st

 

[GolfishardIknowit70]

Only 5 hurricanes have hit the US after November 1st

Troughs and ridges Brent

 

[RoddyPiper]

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Only 5 hurricanes have hit the US after November 1st

Wouldn't ocean temps be cooler in November which would make it harder to sustain a hurricane ?

 

[Brent]

Wouldn't ocean temps be cooler in November which would make it harder to sustain a hurricane ?

It's probably that plus usually the troughs are strong enough by then to keep them east(like Michelle 2001). Close but no cigar

The last couple got buried in Central America and never went north

 

[lexxnchloe]

East

 

[Brent]

Interestingly Election night 2020 had a big hurricane into Central America

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Me and the wife are headed to Playa Del Carmen on the 10th so the tropics better calm tf down

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Henry2326]

Oh my.....icon looks like Euro

 

[Henry2326]

06z GFS. No Escape for 2 twirling lows but avoids conus. What is with the double low thing this season?!?!?!

 

[Henry2326]

06z Ensemble has a shift more North than 00z.

 

[Henry2326]

Hope this sticks for conus.....sorry for Islands.

 

[Shaggy]

Hope this sticks for conus.....sorry for Islands.

View attachment 153561

Really in line with what ensembles were showing yesterday so believable

 

[EV/WS]