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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

LC:

Thanks to a formative weakness over the Caribbean Sea and perhaps the last in the series of westbound "Cape Verde" ITCZ impulses, there is a fair chance to see tropical cyclone development once or twice between Halloween and November 11. A rogue element in this forecast is for the closed 500MB low in the Southwest to eject and capture the moisture and energy from the western Atlantic Basin. Rainfall amounts across the Greater Antilles could be impressive, and I think that the operational GFS and its persistent call for a poleward motion of a disturbance, and linkage to a low and cold front may bring important, if not heavy, rainfall to an Eastern Seaboard that is quite parched. The downside to that situation is that potential for a stronger storm exists along the entire length of the Interstate 95 corridor from Miami FL to Houlton ME.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah makes sense as the story of the year has been strong highs and this seems to fit that seasonal pattern. It's close though in the Bahamas if it gets a north outlet things can change.

We are also still in ensemble range so that will tell a bigger story
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Came close to getting captured and zipping up the coast. Drifting SE


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Still some model divergence with the cmc moving west towards the western Caribbean versus gfs moving it easy towards the greater Antilles. We are still in ensemble range though so lots to still sort through
 
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