Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Downeastnc]

Yeesh this would suck...



06Z is a monster too...977 over RDU would be windy...

 

[$alt]

This storm needs to go away asap. Thankfully it's in lala land.

 

[JHS]

This storm needs to go away asap. Thankfully it's in lala land.

For now, but it's getting closer in on every run. I'd like some rain, but not from a hurricane.

 

[Downeastnc]

This storm needs to go away asap. Thankfully it's in lala land.

Lots of ensemble support on gfs and euro...

 

[Brent]

I don't like how consistent the signal is

 

[Henry2326]

I don't like how consistent the signal is

And what a signal. One of these is the correct one..

 

[GolfishardIknowit70]

I don't like how consistent the signal is

The start of troughs moving east and whatever forms imo goes out to sea.

 

[Henry2326]

Next week, between Wednesday and Friday, we should have go time for a low. NHC should pop in during that time. Next name is Patty.

 

[Henry2326]

The start of troughs moving east and whatever forms imo goes out to sea.

I disagree.....it's a possible solution, but not likely. The setup is looking more like Helene, unfortunately. We will see if it materializes.

 

[Shaggy]

I don't like how consistent the signal is

Yeah this is like 10 runs maybe with the system. That's a concern for sure

 

[Henry2326]

Yeah this is like 10 runs maybe with the system. That's a concern for sure

And it was on the ensembles big time before the operational kicked in.

 

[SD]

The start of troughs moving east and whatever forms imo goes out to sea.

Yep pretty typical of this pattern later in the tropical season. Mjo forced ridge in the east with a tropical system under it. Mjo moves into the trough favored phases so the ridge starts getting beat on then it becomes a race between pulling the system north into the US, hook OTS, or getting left behind and a slow W drift into C America

 

[ForsythSnow]

This storm needs to go away asap. Thankfully it's in lala land.

No ENS support either. It's a one run deal unless they start supporting that time frame too.

 

[AJ1013]

 

[JHS]

The 6z run is faster, but farther east. Still a very close call for areas in NC and SC hit by Helene, and the timing could not be worse. Hopefully this just goes away, but I have a bad feeling about it.

 

[Shaggy]

The 6z run is faster, but farther east. Still a very close call for areas in NC and SC hit by Helene, and the timing could not be worse. Hopefully this just goes away, but I have a bad feeling about it.

Signal is strong but if my quick glance at 06z ensembles is correct it has many members off the coast ots

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Brent]

The GFS isn't funny anymore