Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread Reboot

[jrips27]

Big swing east on the 12z GFS. Doesn’t mean much right now but I guess more in line with what the ensembles have been showing

 

[Webberweather53]

Interpretation: it's gonna be a bad ass storm.....lol

More likely to be a big sloppy storm

 

[jrips27]

950mb right into Tampa. That would be rough

 

[Webberweather53]

Mike's weather page posted this. It's really not as much an unknown as we think....choose one of the lines. Weather history repeats itself.

"Historical map here from NOAA showing storms and where they went and where they started. This from 1949-2023 and for the last week of September. www.spaghettimodels.com"

View attachment 151270

That doesn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence with the track.

 

[NoSnowATL]

So anywhere from Brownsville TX to Key West Fl. Gotcha

 

[Webberweather53]

Hard to get a storm into Texas in this kind of pattern. There’s a reason they don’t see a whole lot after mid September.

 

[jrips27]

We’re still 4-5ish days out from any sort of center forming in large, messy system. So I’d imagine the models will be all over the place.

 

[Brent]

Hard to get a storm into Texas in this kind of pattern. There’s a reason they don’t see a whole lot after mid September.

Yeah especially when next week looks more like fall...

 

[Arcc]

GFS looks like an Charley/Ian repeat. Would be a fine line between shredded cheese and strengthening Cat 4-5 monster.

 

[GaWx]

It is back on the UKMET (12Z) with it becoming a TC at 168 (12Z on 9/26) in NW Caribbean 150 miles SW of W tip of Cuba:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.1N 86.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2024 168 20.1N 86.0W 1004 27

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[NWMSGuy]

12Z Canadian brings the storm up through western LA.

 

[lexxnchloe]

12Z Canadian brings the storm up through western LA.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Weakens because if goes over mountains. Very Inez like. Threat to FLA

 

[lexxnchloe]

Just about the same time of year as Inez

 

[lexxnchloe]

Turning north. Maybe a late season Donna

 

[Shaggy]

The ensemble paints 2 pictures. A faster set that scoot across Southern Florida and then into the SE coast and a much larger group that moves NNE into the big bend area moving more northerly than the op run

 

[Henry2326]

That doesn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence with the track.

It's a NOAA chart.....and it wasn't meant too. No one knows the track today but the chart gives choices. They repeat over and over......

 

[SD]

I'm going to start a new thread for the thing in the gulf bc I just can't right now