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Severe 2024 Severe Discussion

Slight risk out for portions of TN, AL, and GA this evening IMG_8587.png
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Level 2 threat for NC, SC and FL today. Level 3 in TX and OK.

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If the hrrr that just ran is correct my backyard should see a cluster of strong storms right over cape fear region that dumps a ton of rain. Imagine a few of them might be severe as well. Already had a big storm roll east along the southern beaches this morning.
 

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SD said:
It's going to be a level 0 if we don't get out of this soup this morning.

That said seems like this setup is going to favor along and S of 40.
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We broke out right behind a storm that rolled south of me this morning. Getting plenty of sun down here right now and the hrrr is still giving me 3+ totals tonight
 
SD said:
It's going to be a level 0 if we don't get out of this soup this morning.

That said seems like this setup is going to favor along and S of 40.
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Not surprised. I don't even get a storm 90% of the time if there's anything higher than a 1 from the SPC the last few years.
 
All the sun did here was lead to a faster initiation big cumulus is going up now so the storm should be breaking out all over the Cape Fear area
 
Brick Tamland said:
And the level 2 risk has been moved south of the Triangle. Maybe I will actually get a storm now.
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Sort of confused by the MD saying the fronts down along the NC/SC border and storms will be along and south of that amd them they issue a STW for areas well to the north of the border.
 
In line for potential hailer inbound
 

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Really getting hard to believe the SPC outlooks for around here when they end up dropping the risk and there's not any storms at all. I am talking specifically for my area. That's two times in a row they had a level 2 risk here only to drop it and there not be any storms at all. And that happens more often than not now.
 
Shaggy said:
Not expecting much severe tomorrow but if something can get going it could need watching. Some veering evident in soundings and a tornado or 2 would t surprise me in coastal areas of SC maybe NC.



Despite limited insolation due to thick clouds, unstable
conditions should develop Tuesday through advection of warm,
humid air at or just above the surface. GFS forecast soundings
suggest up to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE could develop. Bulk shear
across the 0-6 km layer of 30-40 knots is sufficient to support
organized storms, and curvature in low level wind profiles
suggests enough helicity may be present to create a "non-zero"
tornado potential. HREF updraft helicity ensembles suggest this
threat may be highest Tuesday morning south of Florence and
Conway. The more widespread threat could be locally heavy
rainfall as up to three inches is forecast (storm total) in the
Georgetown area.
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Wind profiles were there for some tornados last Tuesday and after all the severe reports were surveyed there is now a total of 7 tornados

 
Tuesday looking like a pretty big severe weather day up here.F5E57F71-D7BE-4DAC-899C-7E5A81686FC9.png
 
Reed had to put the dominator in a ditch because his computer froze and he got caught in a tornado with his window down and unable to lower the dominator.
 
My parents happened to be driving west on i40 in oklahoma and passed about 4 miles south of the tornado near Weatherford, OK. Unfortunately it was rain wrapped and getting dark when they drove by and they couldn't see it. Said 18wheelers were flipped over on the side of the interstate; I assume from the RFD?
 
rburrel2 said:
My parents happened to be driving west on i40 in oklahoma and passed about 4 miles south of the tornado near Weatherford, OK. Unfortunately it was rain wrapped and getting dark when they drove by and they couldn't see it. Said 18wheelers were flipped over on the side of the interstate; I assume from the RFD?
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RFD damage on Connor croffs livestream was intense. Roofs damaged trees down and widespread damage from what appeared to be very strong RFD
 
Yeah think the first one has lifted now. New circulation forming SE of El Reno
 
Well looks like its gonna go agian probably very near or in the OKC metro..first couplet occluding new tornado forming just east

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Reeds video feed cut out when they drove the dominator into the ditch. They caught everything else on camera and here it is. Main core of the tornado missed them by a little it seems.

 
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