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Severe 2024 Severe Discussion

NWMSGuy said:
Sounds like the SPC may be issuing some additional outlook area's for next week further east of next weeks current outlook.
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We are going to make up for a relatively quiet spring so far over the next 7-9 days. Even after that the trough in the east combined with seasonally warm weather will still be enough for severe opportunities after next weekend. Tuesday-saturday of next week look very active with the stalled fronts and numerous subtle disturbances riding west to east ahead of the big trough.

It looks more like an early summer pattern to me where we get a MCS train along a decaying frontal zone
 
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Connor croff has been on a decent tornados cell north of abilene and has some great videos of the first tornado
 
Chaser Freddy McKinney has injured people in his car he is taking to get help. Apparently it' could a couple of children
 
The SPC and TWC really hyping the Mon/Tues event for the plains! Already level 2 and use of
“Strong” tornadoes from SPC
 
Got to be some of the strangest motion I’ve ever seen on that. Whole cell was diving southeast and the tornado ended up moving northwest
 
SD said:
We are going to make up for a relatively quiet spring so far over the next 7-9 days. Even after that the trough in the east combined with seasonally warm weather will still be enough for severe opportunities after next weekend. Tuesday-saturday of next week look very active with the stalled fronts and numerous subtle disturbances riding west to east ahead of the big trough.

It looks more like an early summer pattern to me where we get a MCS train along a decaying frontal zone
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After last year we might as well say tornado season runs through June down here 🤣
 
Things get a little more interesting Thursday as the cold front will
begin to push into the area. Although the front will be stretched
out somewhat rather than just blasting through, strong DPVA combined
with the upper jet provide plenty of synoptic lift. It`s a little
far out for details but at least the GFS is trying to show a decent
850mb jet as well midday Thursday. Timing of the instability surge
and juxtaposition with strongest deep-layer shear might be critical,
but somewhere in our forecast area we are currently progged to have
2000-2500 J/kg lined up with >50kt deep layer shear, which is
impressive. Forecast trends will need to be monitored. SPC`s Day 6
outlook is vague on the area but mentions the possibility of needing
to introduce an one or more 15% areas for Thursday when guidance
comes into better agreement.

Upper shortwave actually begins to approach later on Friday so pops
remain in the forecast until then. However, depending on the actual
timing of the front itself, cannot rule out an insitu increase in
instability right along the front where there would be a local
enhancement in deep layer shear, but uncertainty is quite high on
when the front would push through. Pops remain high as in line with
the blends but timing will likely change in subsequent forecasts.

Looks like we may get a couple of rounds of severe weather late next week.
 
Quick look says we may get our first semi-active pattern coming for us in the south Wednesday through Friday. Nothing glaring screaming tornado outbreak, but with that 50knt westerly’s at 500mb and occasionally impulses along that broad trough would bring an enhanced risk of severe weather. Looks like hail and wind the main threat but tornadoes would definitely be possible when the LLJ spikes.
 


“This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High
Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with
regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An
increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should
confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase.”
 
Downeastnc said:
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Caption/translation for video starting at 0:40:
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ą̴̨̺͚̠͖̺̜̣͓͋̾a̴̡̲͓͉͚̜̳̖͈͕̱̤̻̠͕͙͌̐̒̀̎͒͛̏͜a̸̢̢̨͚͉̖͚͕̖̹̞̖̟̹̦̣͕̤̯̫̔̈́́́̾̈́̈́͊͌̈́̈͗̉̈́̂̊̉͘͘͜͜͝͝͝͝a̷̞̜̟̲̝͎̻̼̞̜̪̗͕̤̪͌̉̃̔̌͗̍̇̿͝ͅa̵̝̳͖̦͉̹̗͈͔̗̜͉̫͎̞̩͓̬̦͂̀̑̔̔̾̅̕̚͝ͅp̷̛̜̭̤͖̭̹͗̀́̇̅͊̌̒̽̑̀̀̈́͗͊̔̽͘̕͝͝p̷̨̨̛̛̛̼͙͙̯̦͖͔̦̼̪͈͉̩͖̥͖̩̖͇̖̦̩̗̘͖̩̻̈́̊̄͆̈̂͂̓̚̕t̷̡̨̮͕̯̱̰̃͌̾̽̒̿̀͐̿̌̆́͂̋̕̕t̸̢̧̠̝̱͔͈͚̼̥͎̭̗͈̠͈̬̝̊ͅț̵̢̤̩̲̥̞͈̲̲̖͈̮͎̩͖͚̰̥͙̰͍̑̑̈́̐͆ͅȧ̷̖͍̟̟̲͔̭͙̬̳̘̠́̂̅̈́̓̏͐͌̅̉̊́͐̆͗̍̑́͠a̸̛̳͓͇͗͌̉̃͒̏̊́â̷̢̧̨̯̙̭̪͍̮̠͖̹̩͔̤̹̹̹̈́́̑̀̎͆́̀͌́̽̇̍́̚̕͜͜ą̵̨̢̛̬̼̠͉̰̻̯͔̞̬̠͙̝̈̋̿̈́̊̍͋̇̊͛̾̔̒̀̀͆͗̅̅͌̕̕͠ͅă̶̧̢̛̛͕̰̣̞͙̼̩̻͊͊̀͐͛̿̒̋̐̽̒͠ͅá̸̢̗͓̥̥͍̟̹͙͔͙̱̪͇̗̳̟̟͉̜̘̞̩͈̇ͅͅͅa̶̡̢̻̘̬̥̮͔̠̯̳̞̪̞̘̩̮̎̈́ͅͅà̴̜̖͉͔̼̞̘̯͕͎͖͉̎̉́͆ͅą̸̧̢͚͇͈̼̰̳͓̟̟̙͕̲͔̪̻̙͇͉̄̆̌̚͝ḁ̴̢̨̧͚͇͇̮̟̤̻̭̬̞̞̲̞͎̮̩͇̦͈̪̘̩̘̗̗͑i̶̡̨̧̡̻̯͎̠̬̳͚̟̘̦̬̺̖̥̖̜̫̣͈̘̿̚͜ͅͅỉ̷̡͈̖̌͛̓͂͌̆̂e̸̛͉͉̓̐̉́͂̊̊̆̕̕͜ȩ̴̛̬͊̈́̒̓̅́́̓̆̎̈̂̓̿̇̓̕͘ę̶̡̡̛̘͖̻̺̙̪̟͙̻͙̖̜̹̫̯̰̱̈̿͊̽̍́͊̈́͌͒̇́̽̓͐̏̃̀̊̒͒̀͑̈́́̕͘̚͝ͅȩ̸̨̧͍̮̹̞͈̭̬̟̲̱͍̥͈̗͍͉͈̟̘̘̍͗̄͆͊̂̏͐́̔̓̎̆̈́̆̃̅̑̒̅̾̇̅͂͑͘͜͜͝͝ĝ̵̨̧͈̬͔̙̱͍̘̼̺̩̫͚̬̬͎̋͐͌̾̑̄̓̈̊͛̀̊́̄̋͘͜͜͠͝ǧ̷̢̢̢̛͖̟̞͇͕̯̭̦̲̳͉͙͕̫̳͙̬̬̘͇̰͓̝̾̌̓̓͋͐͗̿͘͘ͅķ̵̨̟̻̳̠̳̻̟̝͉͎̖̀́k̴̳͈͙̱͉̣̦͈̫̜̥̞͉̗͈̬̻͍̝̝̗̳̺̎͐͒̑̂͐̇̀̆̔̀̀̈́̋͐̕͜͜͝͝ͅk̶̨̭̗̲͔̝̠̼͖̳͖̣̖̹̬̻͘ą̸̡̢̨͓̝̻̳̺̼͖͕͔̟̟̥̰̘͉͎̤̬̠̘̭̗͖͛͑ͅͅa̶̧̧̛̛̭̺̮̼̫̙̪̩̭͍̘̩̼̹̜͕̰̭͎̠̿͋͆͜͝ȧ̴̛̞̞͇̳̗̜̜̫̘̈́̈̄̔͒̇̀̑͛͂̋̅̔͌͘̚͠ȁ̷̢̹̀̓a̴̛͈̳̎͂͊̀͗̚͝ā̶̹̺͖͎̟̤̭̫̹͎̗͈̉̉̒̈́̌͒̓͋͋͝͝á̷̧̢̩͎̬̘̯̪̰̱͚̼̳̫̺̖̯̥̫̭͚̝̰͔̯͆̓̿̀̈́͂̃̈́̈̍͗͌̆͋͂̾̋̌̚̚̕͠à̵̢̻͇͙͍̥̤̭̎̒̎̐͑̃͋̽͠ạ̷̀͛̀̾̑́̄̊̚͜͠a̴̛̛̩̭͍̮͓̺̔̄̌̊̿̈́͛̊͊̇̆̂̽̆̾͂͐̍́͗̂̃̔̿̚͝ä̷̼̤̯̬̰̼́͒̽͘͝͝ͅa̵̡̢̢̧̛̱̦͈͔̤̞͙̹̹͍͉̥̲͎̫̬͓̥̯̻̖̳̯͇͈͑́̏͐͂̾͝a̴̛̛̙̻̞̼͍̥̜̞̟̠͔̤̺͈̫̹͇̖̳̭̼̯͎̹̜̅̆̀̋͒̇̍̆̽̊̂̃̇͐̊̚͘̚͘ͅͅp̶̛̣̱̯̙͈̊̉́͂̇͐̔̾͐̈́̔͛̈p̴͉̜̯̪̥̹̘̤̬̼͇̣͎̘̪̗͕̗̳̞̻̮̦̗͍̋̉͐̊̊͐̄͐͆͜͝t̵̢̨̞̳̺̩̬̖̲̦̑̏̓͂̑͌̏͛̽͒́̀̇̈́̓t̷̡̡̡̢̨͇͎̗̙̥͚̜̪̥̫̘̳̻͙̤̞̓̑̏̽̈́̎̈́̓̎̀̉͜ẗ̶̢͚͚̪͙̯͙̝́̃̓̊͊͋̌̄̏̑̋̊̒̓̎̑̇͂̈͒͐̚͘̚͘͘á̸̡̦̺͈͈͕̟̣̺͖̦͂̂̈́̈́̿̏̂͆̀̿̌́͐̓͋̆̑̇̒̒͌̂̏̀͝ͅa̷̙̘̜̻̣̣̹͕͇͈͎͇̣̣̥̬͍͍͋̈́ͅą̵̡̠̹̠͐̿̂͒̃͊̀̑ͅḁ̴̛̛͓͎̼̙͙̮̰̟̹͎̤̼̙̠͈̗̲͙͔̺́͂͂͋̍̒͂̈́͊͐͒̀̑͗̀̒̅̈̀̉̂͜͝͝͝ą̷̡̢̖̫͔̼͉̱͂̿̏à̵͙̟̤̳͚̗̮͎̿̍͐̍͑̍̽́͋̾̀̈́̾͘͜͠͝͠͝a̶̢͖͖̖̪̫̙̺͉̼̻̹̲̹̲͔͑́̌̔̋͒̆̾̋̿͝a̶̝̯̤͂͂͊̇̓̂̆͘ā̵̺̎͝â̵̢̝̪̪͓͖͙̯͖̰̟̻͉̺͈͍̮͍͔͚͔̚i̸̢͓̜̬̤̰͔͕͖̝̍̓̓̀͋̐̀̇̀̾̅̿̀̆̑͝ỉ̷̖̖͍̹̈́̑̎̊̍͐͛̏͋͛̀̈̍̉͆͝͠͠ȩ̷̨͓̗̭̗̗͖̹̣̮̜̫̭͍͈͙̗̅̿͐͌͌̉̈́̒̃̓̈̃͛̉̈́̋͒̋̕͘͜͜͠͝ͅę̶̡̡͙̺̞̬̖̥͇̙̻̤͇̱̦̲͎͓͖͔̫̻̱̝̙̲̬̼̄̈́͛̍̒̑̽̄̊͗̍͛̓̎̍̔̕ͅé̷̡̲̭̙̤͙̯̺̮̱̘̩̥̰̝̜̞̺̞͕̞̩̞̐̆̉e̶̡̱̊͋̆̈̃̀̽̐̒̋͘g̵̢̡̧̛̛̮͍̥̙̤͓͚̩͍̲̖̗̥̺̯̜͉̰̯̹͕̫̯̉̂͂̃̓́̎̑̿̍͗̑̋̈̒́̇̔͊̈́͂̽̈́͘͜͠͝ͅg̶̢̢̛̪̰͙͕̩͔̠̬͕̮̺̲̻̘̺͗̆̍̆̐̊̌̋̊̇̄̓̊̐̈͛͑̅̀͌͝͠k̶̢͈̘̟̻̹͉͎̤̬̻̰̖͕̬̜͚̣̩̘̫̖̫̻̳͑͊͂̒̌͋̓̓̈́̏͊̿͛̔̒͊͑͊̽̚͜͜͝ķ̷̘͉̗͎͕̰̅̃̐̔̋̄̆͆̀̐̇̏̑̿̄̆̀̇̋̅̎͆͒̐̈́͠͝k̸̢̡̪͉̘̺̦̩̯̱͔̺͉̯͚̙̳̻̻̻͍̬̻̦̮̣͕̟̈͋̿͊̍̾̂͑̓͊̈́̔̆͗͑̈́͘͜͠a̶̛͕̩̗̮̬̅̍̒̈́̽̆̂̐́̏̈̓̈̈̽̽͌͋̎͌̏̊́̃́̈́̕a̵̡̟͇̙̝̥̬̹̜̦̦̣͇̤͕͕̼̤̘̻̪̲̋͗͆̈́͐͗͊̌̂͗̾͒͑͒̑̈́̒͂͋̈́̕͜͝a̵̧̨̧̢̺̲̞̳͇̼̭̙̘̳̪̲̙̯͇͔͚̼͕͐̓̋̽͊̈́̏̂̅͊͑͑̉͋̽̊͘͠͝a̴̪̟͖͎̠͎̹̺̜͖̠͈̰͉͌̅͂͒̆a̴͚̲̾͂̔̽̇̔̑͒ä̴̡̧̧̩̱͓̬̰͕͚̺̪͔̺̬̮̞̥̠̭̝̲́̂̂͋͐́̎̀̆̑̈́̀͗̆̾̆͊̕̚a̴̛̺̲̣͚͈̳̗͎͇̮͓̤̘̺̾̌̉̌́͌̂̍̑͌̔͋̈̈́̀̋̐̊͘̚͝ǎ̷̡̢̨̯̭͔̱̟̗̠̹̤̼̮͇̰̺̞̦̣͍͚̬̺̟̔̾́̈́̑̓͆̓͊̎̒͒ͅͅͅa
 
Received 2.1 from the last system. Perhaps the “Jonesville Rain Shield” will stop this one.?.. It’s slipping to our south.

1715049880162.png
 
A few counties away! I always miss the good stuffB98FA3C1-CEF6-44D2-BCDF-68442C2362A4.jpeg
 
Not expecting much severe tomorrow but if something can get going it could need watching. Some veering evident in soundings and a tornado or 2 would t surprise me in coastal areas of SC maybe NC.



Despite limited insolation due to thick clouds, unstable
conditions should develop Tuesday through advection of warm,
humid air at or just above the surface. GFS forecast soundings
suggest up to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE could develop. Bulk shear
across the 0-6 km layer of 30-40 knots is sufficient to support
organized storms, and curvature in low level wind profiles
suggests enough helicity may be present to create a "non-zero"
tornado potential. HREF updraft helicity ensembles suggest this
threat may be highest Tuesday morning south of Florence and
Conway. The more widespread threat could be locally heavy
rainfall as up to three inches is forecast (storm total) in the
Georgetown area.
 
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