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Severe 2024 Severe Discussion

It is 79/74 this morning starting with good sun. Hoping the central NC stuff stays away and let's us percolate all day until the storms come in later. We don't any clouds or rain now if we want severe later
 
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That is now a warned system and intensifying. If a cyclone is present it's rain wrapped and probably not super visible 1000073283.jpg
 
If something is still on ground it's about to pass right over a dense neighborhood just north of Hamilton

nothing showing in CC so probably all good. rotation appears to continue weakening.
 
There’s something in between Augusta GA and Columbia SC that seems to kill storms, because I just watched that GA storm go from beast to completely non existent lol
 
Shaggy said:
It is 79/74 this morning starting with good sun. Hoping the central NC stuff stays away and let's us percolate all day until the storms come in later. We don't any clouds or rain now if we want severe later
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Been cloudy most of the day here after the storms that rolled through this morning. Had some good house shaking thunder. It is muggy as hell outside, so maybe it'll be enough for more storms if the sun doesn't come out for a while.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Been cloudy most of the day here after the storms that rolled through this morning. Had some good house shaking thunder. It is muggy as hell outside, so maybe it'll be enough for more storms if the sun doesn't come out for a while.
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I don't think we can recover in the wake of the morning mcs mcv. I think this afternoon is dead for us locally
 
SD said:
I don't think we can recover in the wake of the morning mcs mcv. I think this afternoon is dead for us locally
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Well, that would be par for the course. Under a level 2 threat for today and all the action was last night and this morning.

Sun has been peeking out for a while here, though.
 
Watch likely coming soon.

Mesoscale Discussion 1016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern South Carolina...eastern North
Carolina...southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271837Z - 272000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
northeast SC into southeastern VA. Multicells, line segments, and
supercells will likely develop this afternoon and pose a threat for
large hail and damaging gusts. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled
out. A WW issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating is contributing to
destabilization of the boundary layer, with surface temperatures
rising into the 80s F amid upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints,
boosting MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg over many locales. As the 500 mb vort
max over northern NC continues to progress east, and as MLCINH
continues to erode, thunderstorms should develop in the next couple
of hours, and increase in both coverage and intensity through the
afternoon. A 35+ kt southwesterly low-level jet is overspreading the
Carolinas, beneath a westerly 60+ kt 500 mb jet, contributing to
modestly curved and elongated hodographs. As such, multicells, short
line segments, and occasional supercells, will all be possible
convective modes, accompanied by a large hail/damaging gust threat.
Some forecast soundings show large enough low-level hodograph
curvature to support an isolated tornado threat closer to the NC/VA
coastline.

Given the expected coverage of potential severe weather this
afternoon, a WW issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or
two.

mcd1016.png
 
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

TORNADO WATCH 335 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079-
083-085-091-093-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-
163-165-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-280300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0335.240527T1940Z-240528T0300Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE
DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD
HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LENOIR MARTIN
NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW
PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PITT SAMPSON SCOTLAND
TYRRELL VANCE WAKE
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILSON
$$
 
Chrisgo said:
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

TORNADO WATCH 335 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079-
083-085-091-093-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-
163-165-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-280300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0335.240527T1940Z-240528T0300Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE
DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD
HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LENOIR MARTIN
NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW
PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PITT SAMPSON SCOTLAND
TYRRELL VANCE WAKE
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILSON
$$
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Wow, I was just expecting a severe thunderstorm watch.
 
Tornado warning!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Halifax County in central North Carolina...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 344 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles southwest of Halifax, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Halifax around 405 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Enfield and Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
 
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