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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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I am hoping people stay home and off the roads for Hilary, I was stationed in 29 Palms, and it’s surprising how little rain it takes to cause major issues! On another note , I know it’s way out and wrong atm but I wish the ECMFW went out further the 2 am run looked like a major for somewhere along the SE coast!
 
jeremyt said:
I am hoping people stay home and off the roads for Hilary, I was stationed in 29 Palms, and it’s surprising how little rain it takes to cause major issues! On another note , I know it’s way out and wrong atm but I wish the ECMFW went out further the 2 am run looked like a major for somewhere along the SE coast!
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Control took into the sea islands and basically along the SC coast up to Charleston. It's about a 24 hour coastal tour so I'd imagine a lot of weakening but a ton of rain.
 
BullCityWx said:
Control took into the sea islands and basically along the SC coast up to Charleston. It's about a 24 hour coastal tour so I'd imagine a lot of weakening but a ton of rain.
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Thanks I left soaker out after the major! I’ll take all the rain I can get, even if in la la land!
 
Oh wow

gfs_ref_frzn_seus_40.png
 
Upon further review I dont think the GFS cane will happen. It comes from magic, from a storm that comes from the pacific and that almost never happens. It does show a depression north of the islands so thats the real show though the gfs just washes it out.
You can see where the FLA cane comes from and it seems unrealistic to me


gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_20.png


You can also see another storm forming in the east pac and that will be what happens without the magic spnioff to the east.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Upon further review I dont think the GFS cane will happen. It comes from magic, from a storm that comes from the pacific and that almost never happens. It does show a depression north of the islands so thats the real show though the gfs just washes it out.
You can see where the FLA cane comes from and it seems unrealistic to me


gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_20.png


You can also see another storm forming in the east pac and that will be what happens without the magic spnioff to the east.
Click to expand...
It looks like it's forming a system off of the ITCZ then reforming off the coast of Nicaragua after the land passage. While it's rare, it's happened before. To what extent convection is disrupted from the mountains is unknown and reformation conditions at the time. My wow comment was in reference to the tropical system that recently went through the area causing catastrophic damage.

Barbra:

1920px-Barbara_2013_track.png
 
Very disappointing Euro. The cane now is just a weak recurving low. there is another one that will recurve 1000 miles east of that and 1 weak crossover in the BOC that i just dont think will happen. Joe Bastardi has cancelled a sept to remember and now says Sept will be below normal. Overall, its time to wait till next season and hope somehow the tropics will remember how to be favorable.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png
 
lexxnchloe said:
Very disappointing Euro. The cane now is just a weak recurving low. there is another one that will recurve 1000 miles east of that and i weak crossover in the BOC that i just dont thing will happen. Joe Bastardi has cancelled a sept to remember and now says Sept will be below normal. Overall, its time to wait till next season and hope somehow the tropics will remember how to be favorable.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png
Click to expand...
Guess Joe is buying into the El Nino induced TUTT
 
lexxnchloe said:
Very disappointing Euro. The cane now is just a weak recurving low. there is another one that will recurve 1000 miles east of that and 1 weak crossover in the BOC that i just dont think will happen. Joe Bastardi has cancelled a sept to remember and now says Sept will be below normal. Overall, its time to wait till next season and hope somehow the tropics will remember how to be favorable.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png
Click to expand...

Better luck next year
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png



This is where it ends up. I know it might end up east of bermuda, over NC or never develops at the next run, lol
 
This is probably why JB is talking about the season slowing down during the peak. Doesn't mean we won't have something but it's not super favorable the last week of August into the first third of September. Extrapolate this out and it may get favorable again the last third of September into early October

eps_chi200_global_9.png

Vs

eps_chi200_global_31.png
 
What gets mildly interesting to me is the potential to have one of the trio of systems in the Atlantic or maybe a 4th wave to potentially not be enticed out to sea then the CONUS pattern reverting back to what we've seen a lot this summer with a ridge in the west trough in the east. If that happens maybe you can grab something and pull it north but that seems low potential at best
 
@lexxnchloe ...

You NEED to get into the correct thinking..
WE here around (ILM & just outside the forecast area(s)..

We knocked off our clock between, Sept 14th too Mid~ Oct.. 15th through 30th..
You EVER been through a good CANE in WILM?..

Heh, Heh, Heh.. ;);)
 
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