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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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Webberweather53 said:
Might have to hold off on this for just a little bit. I keep running into snags, like this storm, which wasn't analyzed by NCSCO or NWS RAH. How could I forget the ZR I got in Raleigh when I was expecting 6-12" of snow?
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I really liked the storm. As you said, we were supposed to get a big snowstorm. But I ended up with a second-best thing in a sleetfest:
1670207970246.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Might have to hold off on this for just a little bit. I keep running into snags, like this storm, which wasn't analyzed by NCSCO or NWS RAH. How could I forget the ZR I got in Raleigh when I was expecting 6-12" of snow?
View attachment 124809
Click to expand...

Some other storms I've taken a look at tonight, either reanalyzing/giving a facelift to a pre-existing map I made, or building a new one for ice. Still got a lot of work to do.

December 12-13 2019 NC Ice Storm Map.jpg

January 23 2019 NC Ice Storm Map.jpg

December 8-9 2013 NC Ice Storm Map.jpg

February 26-27 2004 NC Ice Map.jpg
February 6-7 2003 NC Ice Storm Map.jpgJanuary 2-3 2002 NC Ice Storm Map.jpg

January 9 2015 NC Ice Storm Map.jpg
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Might have to hold off on this for just a little bit. I keep running into snags, like this storm, which wasn't analyzed by NCSCO or NWS RAH. How could I forget the ZR I got in Raleigh when I was expecting 6-12" of snow?
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Yeah GSP had me forecasted 5-9” of snow with this one and I ended with .25” ice topped off by .5” of snow. What’s funny is that I was worried all day leading into this storm that the surface temperatures were going to be an issue as temperatures were still near 40 as rain started around 5pm. However by 9:30 I was at 31 and looked outside to see the tree limbs starting to glaze over. Dang warm nose was way undermodeled.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Might have to hold off on this for just a little bit. I keep running into snags, like this storm, which wasn't analyzed by NCSCO or NWS RAH. How could I forget the ZR I got in Raleigh when I was expecting 6-12" of snow?
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Who can forget the other side of this one. [See below] Easily one of my top-3 snow progg disappointments over the last 40yrs

20170107.gsp.nc.snow.accum.png
 
BullCityWx said:
I'm glad I was reared in a time where posting a single frame 300 hour GFS map would get your Tom Brady Sucks banned.
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Anything beyond 144 hours is for comedic purposes only. I enjoy the fanciful predictions, though. They are always wrong and remind me why we can't trust any climate model, either. So there is some value to them., but not for predicting weather.

I remember when the AFS ran out only to 72 hours. NAM was 36 hours, I think.
 
For serious reflection, I enjoy the UKMET at 144 hours and before. For casual interest and crystal ball prediction, the EURO out to 168 hours. For hoots and giggles, the GFS after 72 hours.

Severe, once in range of 36 hours, 3km NAM and HRRR long range.
 
We all know the GFS sucks. Idk why we bother with it. Wasn’t it the one who kept blowing it on hurricanes this year to?
 
Stevo24 said:
We all know the GFS sucks. Idk why we bother with it. Wasn’t it the one who kept blowing it on hurricanes this year to?
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Truth is they all suck beyond 7 days. Ensembles can also be misleading. Mean can be skewed by a few very cold or very snowy members. If 35 of the 51 members of the EPS are warmer than normal and 16 are way below normal skewing the mean to below average its probably going to be warmer than normal. We see it constantly with snow when a handful of members skew the mean but the majority say it's not going to snow. And usually it doesn't snow.
 
Ok so is the gfs trash or is it picking up something? It picked up the bad pacific at first in the dec 8-13 timeframe, which it looks like will be correct now that we have gotten closer. How long are we delaying this pattern change because to me I don’t see this glory pattern happening. I’m not going full panic mode right now just stating that the models continue to push things back and it seems like no end in sight.
 
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