Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[Tarheel1]

Truth is they all suck beyond 7 days. Ensembles can also be misleading. Mean can be skewed by a few very cold or very snowy members. If 35 of the 51 members of the EPS are warmer than normal and 16 are way below normal skewing the mean to below average its probably going to be warmer than normal. We see it constantly with snow when a handful of members skew the mean but the majority say it's not going to snow. And usually it doesn't snow.

But 84 hour NAM, is wasaay better! ???‍

 

[Chazwin]

It really is starting to feel like this -nao is going to nothing for us in the southeast. I'll see you at the next +PNA!

You do realize that the -NAO just started 3 days ago right?

 

[jeremyt]

He's basically Logan Elliot with a meteorologist degree.

Did someone create an alt account? ?

 

[Tarheel1]

Anybody got the pretty snow maps from the 12 z Euro run, please? For my neck of the woods?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Ok so is the gfs trash or is it picking up something? It picked up the bad pacific at first in the dec 8-13 timeframe, which it looks like will be correct now that we have gotten closer. How long are we delaying this pattern change because to me I don’t see this glory pattern happening. I’m not going full panic mode right now just stating that the models continue to push things back and it seems like no end in sight.

I agree with you. Evidently we are supposed to go to neutral to positive PNA but I don’t see it happening so quickly


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[weatherfide]

You do realize that the -NAO just started 3 days ago right?

I was referring to the model projections 168+ hours from now, but I get your point. Pacific rules, NAO drools.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

So much for the warm Alaska cold SE theory. Jeez we really suck these days

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

So much for the warm Alaska cold SE theory. Jeez we really suck these days

I still call it Barrow. A lot easier to spell and pronounce than Utqiagvik.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I mean.. the gfs has been consistent with warmer weather while the EURO has been consistent with a pattern change. One has to be onto something


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[Stevo24]

It really is starting to feel like this -nao is going to nothing for us in the southeast. I'll see you at the next +PNA!

What are you talking about things are looking great for mid-end of month.

 

[Tarheel1]

Bonus incoming

 

[Chazwin]

Bonus incoming View attachment 124853

Will there be a chair pic later?

 

[Spurs up]

what's all the fuss about? it's supposed to be a warm winter. I thought we all knew this.

 

[Spurs up]

we had 2 icestorms and 4 inches of powder down this way last winter. we are like winter weather camel's down here we can store that ---- up for another 6 years!

 

[Tarheel1]

Will there be a chair pic later?

Friday morning! ?
This was just the appetizer! ??‍

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

“No arctic air anytime soon”. That’s so sad lol

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[NoSnowATL]

“No arctic air anytime soon”. That’s so sad lol

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We live in the Southeast. Snow is hard to come by. People tend to forget that when they see snow in the west. The west coast gets more snow and should. When your area avg 1-3 a year that doesn’t mean you get 1-3in a year. It’s avg over time.

 

[jeremyt]

We live in the Southeast. Snow is hard to come by. People tend to forget that when they see snow in the west. The west coast gets more snow and should. When your area avg 1-3 a year that doesn’t mean you get 1-3in a year. It’s avg over time.

The closet weenies make it so fun though. The doom and gloom posts when we all haven’t a clue what’s gonna happen in the end. Posts of every model that shows nothing while they wish for a historic event is comical

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

We live in the Southeast. Snow is hard to come by. People tend to forget that when they see snow in the west. The west coast gets more snow and should. When your area avg 1-3 a year that doesn’t mean you get 1-3in a year. It’s avg over time.

I agree mostly. The mountains out there rack up. Seattle and places along the coast is what irritates me. Seattle averages 6 inches a year. Not much more than the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor. It's not the lack of snow that irritates me here as much as it is the constant above average temps in winter. Especially December. We should not go 12 years without a below average December and we're well on the way to doing it again.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I agree mostly. The mountains out there rack up. Seattle and places along the coast is what irritates me. Seattle averages 6 inches a year. Not much more than the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor. It's not the lack of snow that irritates me here as much as it is the constant above average temps in winter. Especially December. We should not go 12 years without a below average December and we're well on the way to doing it again.

It's really strange that Seattle only averages 6" considering they have had some really big snowfalls. They had nearly 70" in one winter. Have any of the big cities in NC ever had 70" in a winter ? It seems very strange for a city that averages 6" to get 70" in a winter. They have a really interesting climate.