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Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

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Parker said:
I’ve got a bad feeling about today. I smell uneasiness
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No worries, I think we'll struggle the week of Christmas with the western trough, but after the 25th it stays cold with @griteater Aleutian low bonanza, and a much improved pacific. But my guess is we lose the Atlantic blocking. Can't have both, existence would self implode.
 
SnowNiner said:
No worries, I think we'll struggle the week of Christmas with the western trough, but after the 25th it stays cold with @griteater Aleutian low bonanza, and a much improved pacific. But my guess is we lose the Atlantic blocking. Can't have both, existence would self implode.
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The 25th thru the end of the year into January matches the progression on Allan Huffmans post the other day. Anything before Christmas will be ice at best. Unless we stop the trend of dumping out west around the 20th that's just the way it is. A trough that strong dropping west has no choice but flex the SER out ahead until the cold gets here around Christmas. That is assuming the Aleutian low kicks it east like it should.
 
Some of my favorites:

"I'll get excited when it's inside ___ days"
"Wake me up when it shows something"
"Latest GFS looks horrible, winter cancel"
 
Why must people torture themselves with maps of anything past hour 172. Even that is pushing it.

Sure you can make note of overall patterns/setups on a global scale. But as model resolution increases, each error in the early forecasting period is exponentially compounded the further out in time you go. This leads to very bad forecasts post day 5.
 
Just because models show a "storm" in the long-term doesn't make it a forecast.
The model crunches numbers, and from those numbers (that initialization/sampling are a big part of) it spits out solutions.

These solutions should be interpreted by people who can process it neutrally, without any per-determined outlook of what they hope to see.

I used to live and die by each model run myself, until I realized that it's futile.
 
People still don’t know how close we are to an epic snow out of nowhere in DBQ! Some pics and models. 1 shows line of precip today, watch for a new low to blow up about a day and a half later, miss bu about 20 miles! It’s crazy closeEBA0BD99-A517-49B5-BBDC-5AB4CA3BEF3A.pngE8E96342-761D-4D7C-BE00-E471AE839F26.png5229F6F4-B60E-4D03-A428-7E4216123C55.png
 
Looking at a model's output, one should look for reasons WHY something is depicted. Not blindly saying it's correct if it shows a nice event/pattern, or saying it is wrong because it shows something one does not want.

One could call accepting a specific model depicting snowstorm and accepting it as face value as "model chasing".

I suggest looking at reasons why the said event wouldn't happen opposed to how much in your back yard instead. Some may call this being a "debbie downer". I call it being realistic.

My TED Talk is over now.
Thank you.
 
We really need to STJ to flex here otherwise it's just going to be mostly Colorado Lows. Sucks because Nino's mostly produce that.
 
Shawn said:
Looking at a model's output, one should look for reasons WHY something is depicted. Not blindly saying it's correct if it shows a nice event/pattern, or saying it is wrong because it shows something one does not want.

One could call accepting a specific model depicting snowstorm and accepting it as face value as "model chasing".

I suggest looking at reasons why the said event wouldn't happen opposed to how much in your back yard instead. Some may call this being a "debbie downer". I call it being realistic.

My TED Talk is over now.
Thank you.
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If ops weren't released beyond D5 and ensembles D7, the traffic on this board would be cut down by 80% lol.
 
gfs_Td2m_us_49.png
 
That's a lot of real estate with negative anomalies. The northern hemisphere is turning blue.
griteater said:
If we were going in a bad direction, you would think the ensemble mean would be either going in a worse direction or holding the line....but it's improving here on Dec 20th. I especially like the slight improvement with the -NAO placement. This is the GEFS Mean, last 5 runs

8WKsm5C.gif
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Stevo24 said:
Now we’re talking about light events? Where did the big dogs go?
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Only big dogs that showed up on a run here or there were over 10 days out. Cool to look at but near zero chance of verifying. We'd be lucky to catch a light 1-3" event Christmas week..that'd be awesome. After that I believe we have a better shot at something big
 
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