Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

This is GFS based...

That’s even worse…. The GFS has been flipping every run, why not use ensembles as a base ?

 

[CaryWx]

Weather apps are good to forecast for 24hrs to maybe (maybe) up to 72hrs. Other than that they do have some cute symbols and colors to look at. My iPhone weather app even has some faux rolling clouds and rain falling in the background.

I've seen them radically change a 24hr forecast in a single 6hr update.

 

[bigstick10]

That’s even worse…. The GFS has been flipping every run, why not use ensembles as a base ?

That was basically my point, it says 30, then 70 in one run

 

[bigstick10]

Weather apps are good to forecast for 24hrs to maybe (maybe) up to 72hrs. Other than that they do have some cute symbols and colors to look at. My iPhone weather app even has some faux rolling clouds and rain falling in the background.

I've seen them radically change a 24hr forecast in a single 6hr update.

Unfortunately people rely on them like they are the weather bible..

 

[weatherfide]

LOL,,,Yeah this looks frigid

Atlanta Extended Weather Forecast

Thu
Dec 15

64°F
Fri
Dec 16

50°F
Sat
Dec 17

53°F
Sun
Dec 18

52°F
Mon
Dec 19

45°F
Tue
Dec 20

50°F
Wed
Dec 21

64°F
46°F
38°F
38°F
44°F
42°F
50°F
63°F

Are those average temps? If so, 38 average in Atlanta is arctic air. That app is very hard to read.

 

[RBR71]

One ridiculous post can derail a good discussion so fast, come on y'all

 

[weatherfide]

LOL,,,Yeah this looks frigid

Atlanta Extended Weather Forecast

Thu
Dec 15

64°F
Fri
Dec 16

50°F
Sat
Dec 17

53°F
Sun
Dec 18

52°F
Mon
Dec 19

45°F
Tue
Dec 20

50°F
Wed
Dec 21

64°F
46°F
38°F
38°F
44°F
42°F
50°F
63°F

My "app" based on the latest Euro 0z run, for Atlanta:

Sun 12/11: Mostly Cloudy to Overcast with a 60% chance of rain, temps steady in the upper 50's.
Mon 12/12: Mostly Cloudy, lows in the low 50's highs around 60.
Tue 12/13: Lows in the upper 40's and highs steady, around 52. Cloudy.
Wed 12/14: Cloudy, Lows in the lower 40's, highs around 50. Periods of rain, heavy at times. Chance of rain 80%.
Thur 12/15: Rain ending in the early morning. Temps rising to around 60 before rapidly dropping. Low will be at 11:59 pm in the low 40's.
Fri 12/16: Low of 33, high of 50, mostly clear.
Sat 12/17: Low of 31, high of 48, partly cloudy.

No skill at forecasting beyond 10 days, at all.

 

[597DM]

???View attachment 125095View attachment 125095

?

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

LOL,,,Yeah this looks frigid

Atlanta Extended Weather Forecast

Thu
Dec 15

64°F
Fri
Dec 16

50°F
Sat
Dec 17

53°F
Sun
Dec 18

52°F
Mon
Dec 19

45°F
Tue
Dec 20

50°F
Wed
Dec 21

64°F
46°F
38°F
38°F
44°F
42°F
50°F
63°F

Actually that does look cold. 2 days with highs in the 30s ?

 

[bigstick10]

Actually that does look cold. 2 days with highs in the 30s ?

No those 38's are lows...

https://www.weatherforyou.com/report/atlanta-ga-extended

 

[Oconeexman]

Sunglasses for the first time in a week!

 

[SD]

Today mostly sunny high 65 low 46
Tomorrow rain high 52 low 42
Saturday cloudy high 55 low 38
Sunday showers high 56 low 43

Thank you for using the southernwx forecast app

 

[Carolina Jones]

 

[LickWx]

Wish we had someone in GA with data like the above.

@bigstick10 @Snowlover87. snowlover has tons of data... especially on matters regarding latitudes.

 

[tazaroo]

I don't post much but have been on these forums since Wright weather nearly 20 years ago. I sure hope this advertised upcoming cold pattern full of potential is real.

We will find out soon if it holds mid Dec or pushes back further.

 

[severestorm]

I don't post much but have been on these forums since Wright weather nearly 20 years ago. I sure hope this advertised upcoming cold pattern full of potential is real.

We will find out soon if it holds mid Dec or pushes back further.

Yup normally how it works. Met's will keep saying it's always around the corner, without dates. Then a major winter storm hits after or doesn't and everyone keeps moving posts until defeat in March.

 

[SimeonNC]

Remember last winter when there was that stretch of warm days before that period of cold and snow?

I'm having serious deja vu right now lol.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Nice warm 55° at 4200 ft in Blowing Rock. Working outside in a T-shirt.

 

[LukeBarrette]

GEFS trending cooler and cooler


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I could’ve never predicted this message from Logan

 

[weatherfide]

Today mostly sunny high 65 low 46
Tomorrow rain high 52 low 42
Saturday cloudy high 55 low 38
Sunday showers high 56 low 43

Thank you for using the southernwx forecast app

I'm pushing a high of 78 today in my neighborhood. Arrgh, It be warm, scallywags...

 

[Snowfan]

CMC Ens goes to this

 

[CaryWx]

Yeah, trying to keep my pedestrian excitement out of the Pattern thread but holy cow it's looking good!

 

[NoSnowATL]

The Southeast in a few weeks!

 

[Tarheel1]

We get our best arctic outbreaks when they originate from Seattle! Hellos ‘89 reduh

 

[Tarheel1]

Yalls storm won’t leave me alone now!

 

[597DM]

We get our best arctic outbreaks when they originate from Seattle! Hellos ‘89 reduhView attachment 125131

? ? ?

 

[Ross]

12z runs

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I don’t see much snow with this upcoming pattern. -PNA/big 50-50 low screams a ice event, lots of Shallow cold air with WAA regime/SW flow across the SE in general from the western trough/energy mean ice, especially in CAD regions

 

[weatherfide]

I don’t see much snow with this upcoming pattern. -PNA/big 50-50 low screams a ice event, lots of Shallow cold air with WAA regime/SW flow across the SE in general from the western trough/energy mean ice, especially in CAD regions

I agree. NC and KY, possibly TN, could get in on some wintry weather.

 

[Chazwin]

I don’t see much snow with this upcoming pattern. -PNA/big 50-50 low screams a ice event, lots of Shallow cold air with WAA regime/SW flow across the SE in general from the western trough/energy mean ice, especially in CAD regions

The key would be how deep the CAD would be… some of these looks aren’t too far off from the January 2004 Super CAD event… that one had a lot of sleet and ZR, but a pretty good thump of snow on the front side

 

[Tarheel1]

Somebody gonna get smoked! Convective snow/ice!?????

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Somebody gonna get smoked! Convective snow/ice!?????View attachment 125144View attachment 125145View attachment 125146View attachment 125147View attachment 125148

Good luck getting it to stick. Will it even get below freezing there the next few days ?

 

[Tarheel1]

Good luck getting it to stick. Will it even get below freezing there the next few days ?

Between the sun angle,4 pm sunsets, mountain torque waves, ground temps, bird activity, and the latitude, it’s gonna be tough! Just want my chair white and watch cotton balls fall! It’s sad snow has never accumulated with air temps above 32 degrees! ??

 

[Hypsometric]

I don’t see much snow with this upcoming pattern. -PNA/big 50-50 low screams a ice event, lots of Shallow cold air with WAA regime/SW flow across the SE in general from the western trough/energy mean ice, especially in CAD regions

I think it depends. With this strong of a west-based -NAO and if the Pacific energy is coming in across southern CA, I think the odds tilt towards snow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Between the sun angle,4 pm sunsets, mountain torque waves, ground temps, bird activity, and the latitude, it’s gonna be tough! Just want my chair white and watch cotton balls fall! It’s sad snow has never accumulated with air temps above 32 degrees! ??

Cant forget about the frozen meteor smoke and recurving tycoons ? some of our best snows come after the Philippines get leveled

 

[Tarheel1]

Cant forget about the frozen meteor smoke and recurving tycoons ? some of our best snows come after the Philippines get leveled

HRRR is coming in hot! All in now! ??

 

[whatalife]

The Shane method as he stated

I thought I had quoted @SD in my post. Guess not.

 

[weatherfide]

HRRR is coming in hot! All in now! ??View attachment 125150View attachment 125151

Chair pics or it didn't happen - remember.

 

[Chazwin]

Good luck getting it to stick. Will it even get below freezing there the next few days ?

If Wingate, NC can see 2.5” of snow stick on 4/2 during the daytime, the day after a 68 degree day, I’m fairly certain snow can stick in Iowa on 12/10

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

If Wingate, NC can see 2.5” of snow stick on 4/2 during the daytime, the day after a 68 degree day, I’m fairly certain snow can stick in Iowa on 12/10

I'm sure some of it will stick, but with temps above freezing I doubt it will stick around for long once it's over.