Misc 2021 Spring/Summer Whamby Thread

[Six Mile Wx]

Facebook groups are alive and well!

Facebook is still around?

 

[SD]

Another event to add the evidence. If a warm front has to come north the day of an event, most of the time it will not reach where it gets forecasted thus shifts the threat south.

Unless it's snow then you can't stop it

 

[jackendrickwx]

?

 

[jackendrickwx]

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[SD]

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Gfs has it gone by 0z and the nam isn't exactly widespread. You are going to drive yourself crazy though using the x-hour averaged precip rates they are wayyyy widespread

 

[jackendrickwx]

Gfs has it gone by 0z and the nam isn't exactly widespread. You are going to drive yourself crazy though using the x-hour averaged precip rates they are wayyyy widespread

NAM has a dry bias don’t it

 

[SD]

NAM has a dry bias don’t it

Eh dependent really. The CAMs runs tonight should probably start giving you a better idea

 

[jackendrickwx]

Eh dependent really. The CAMs runs tonight should probably start giving you a better idea

MRX has 60-70% for the whole race period so I’m not optimistic. Plus it’s not like you can dry dirt

 

[jackendrickwx]

Gfs has it gone by 0z and the nam isn't exactly widespread. You are going to drive yourself crazy though using the x-hour averaged precip rates they are wayyyy widespread

Also what GFS are you looking at that has it gone by 0z?

 

[SD]

MRX has 60-70% for the whole race period so I’m not optimistic. Plus it’s not like you can dry dirt

I wonder how much rain the track can take before they can't race

 

[SD]

Also what GFS are you looking at that has it gone by 0z?

Look at the radar product on the 18z run

 

[jackendrickwx]

I wonder how much rain the track can take before they can't race

Some moisture is actually beneficial because they do wet dirt tracks before racing, but a downpour sets em back big time

 

[jackendrickwx]

Look at the radar product on the 18z run

Yep I figured it out lol I should prolly be looking at that more so than the MSLP/precip function

 

[SD]

Some moisture is actually beneficial because they do wet dirt tracks before racing, but a downpour sets em back big time

 

[jackendrickwx]

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That’s not terrible. I guess it depends on avoiding heavy rain during the early-mid aft batch of showers and then avoiding any rogue showers afterwards

 

[SD]

That’s not terrible. I guess it depends on avoiding heavy rain during the early-mid aft batch of showers and then avoiding any rogue showers afterwards

Yeah hope it works out for you, I just want to get to the Bristol night race

 

[jackendrickwx]

Yeah hope it works out for you, I just want to get to the Bristol night race

Go for it dude, it’s the best venue in NASCAR hands down. I’ve been three times and loved every second of it (aside from delays of course)

also the GFS has actual trended drier over the past 8 runs

 

[SD]

Go for it dude, it’s the best venue in NASCAR hands down. I’ve been three times and loved every second of it (aside from delays of course)

also the GFS has actual trended drier over the past 8 runs

Don't look at the new HRRR

 

[jackendrickwx]

Don't look at the new HRRR

Oh gosh dangit right when you had some encouragement

 

[SD]

Oh gosh dangit right when you had some encouragement

I wouldn't sweat it honestly. If tomorrow nights 0z looks like that yeah it could be problematic