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Misc 2021 Spring/Summer Whamby Thread

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Bruh
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What's with the slight westward shifts from one run to the next one for seemingly most runs of most models? Then there will sometimes be a larger east shift before the small westward shifts restart. I suspect some of this is related to cold biases. But for the early April cold, it didn't really do this and the models did great.
 
What's with the slight westward shifts from one run to the next one for seemingly most runs of most models? Then there will sometimes be a larger east shift before the small westward shifts restart. I suspect some of this is related to cold biases. But for the early April cold, it didn't really do this and the models did great.
Models are really really bad at the Pacific and ridging along the west coast. This is very similar to the Feb Cold shot where the western ridge was originally modeled too far east.
 
Models are really really bad at the Pacific and ridging along the west coast. This is very similar to the Feb Cold shot where the western ridge was originally modeled too far east.
Shorter wavelengths to boot, +PNA now isn’t the same thing as a positive PNA in Jan
 
Yeah it's just weird how models at D7+ always have this perfect ridge to deliver eastern cold then it trends west in subsequent runs. I don't get it
Yeah and it’s all models that seem to do it, makes me wonder if models are maybe perhaps catching on the the lag effect in tropical forcing or something, since it’s not just a instant response, looks like the models have slowed the phase 6 progression a bit to
 
Yeah it's just weird how models at D7+ always have this perfect ridge to deliver eastern cold then it trends west in subsequent runs. I don't get it

I wonder if it is due to the near record warm western Pacific.
 
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