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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southern
Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Environmental conditions
appear to be favorable for some slow development by the end of the
week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is
expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5
to 10 mph over the western Caribbean Sea close to the east coast of
Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
SD said:
Nah it's a wave that is emerging from Africa late today/ tomorrow. Euro was a little more threatening with it at D10, still likely otsView attachment 89803
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Arctic October sea ice, looking to get a kickstart! ?
 
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SD said:
Nah it's a wave that is emerging from Africa late today/ tomorrow. Euro was a little more threatening with it at D10, still likely otsView attachment 89803
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I think that one will be determined by which part of the wave axis or trough develops. Earlier runs that developed the southern end kept it west for much longer.

Would still be a tall task to get west with the other storms floating around the upper Atlantic basin though.
 
Hoping Ida used up most of the energy in Gulf so the Gulf coast doesn’t get another hit. Focus may soon shift to east coast.
 
cd2play said:
Hoping Ida used up most of the energy in Gulf so the Gulf coast doesn’t get another hit. Focus may soon shift to east coast.
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Fortunately, nothing looks the least bit imminent as far as any east coast threat is concerned as the models and Henry's 2 posts show. It is nice to be able to say that in late August!
 
Henry2326 said:



View attachment 89865
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I expect it will remain active like it has been, but hopefully without a threat. Regardless, the first half of September at least appears for the east coast to be lacking a significant threat based on all models including this 12Z EPS, which also has the storm that may form in the eastern Atlantic within the next few days. None of the 51 members even comes close to the SE US though a few do threaten the NE US. Not that I need Ida to remind me, but her devastation in LA makes me thankful for the lack of an imminent SE coast threat, especially considering we're in cold neutral/La Nina. We'll have to see what the 2nd half of Sept through Oct. brings, which is way too far out to have a good feel for. So, still a long way to go this season.
 
GaWx said:
I expect it will remain active like it has been, but hopefully without a threat. Regardless, the first half of September at least appears for the east coast to be lacking a significant threat based on all models including this 12Z EPS, which also has the storm that may form in the eastern Atlantic within the next few days. None of the 51 members even comes close to the SE US though a few do threaten the NE US. Not that I need Ida to remind me, but her devastation in LA makes me thankful for the lack of an imminent SE coast threat, especially considering we're in cold neutral/La Nina. We'll have to see what the 2nd half of Sept through Oct. brings, which is way too far out to have a good feel for. So, still a long way to go this season.
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You are much more optimistic than I am.....lol

We started seeing hints of "something for gulf" around 8/17. The first posts to the Ida thread as an invest was 8/24, to landfall at 8/29. 12 day turn around from a hint.
Sept is golden time, I'm expecting it and close in.
 
12 CMC just won't let this go for 9/8 in Louisiana again.
BTW, Cantore vaguely mentioned this on TWC last night.

Screenshot_1630430021650.png
 
I'm still not worried about Larry due to a lack of a significant WAR on models for 10+ days. But way out in cartoonland, I am more interested in what may come afterward. As shown by the end of the 12Z EPS, many of these members are weak but are moving briskly westward, which may mean it gets much further west than Larry. This wave comes off Africa ~9/11 and wouldn't have a chance to bother us until after 9/21. With it being a La Nina or at least close to one, AEW's like these should be watched rather closely:

ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0360.png
 
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GaWx said:
I'm still not worried about Larry due to a lack of a significant WAR on models for 10+ days. But way out in cartoonland, I am more interested in what may come afterward. As shown by the end of the 12Z EPS, many of these members are weak but are moving briskly westward, which may mean it gets much further west than Larry. This wave comes off Africa ~9/11 and wouldn't have a chance to bother us until after 9/21. With it being a La Nina or at least close to one, AEW's like these should be watched rather closely:

View attachment 89944
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The lineup once Larry is out of the way.

Screenshot_2021-08-31-19-40-37.png
 
Hard to believe we're on track with 2005 right now once Larry forms(August 31 in 2005 also) and only a few days behind 2020(Laura Marco were last week)
 
GaWx said:
I'm still not worried about Larry due to a lack of a significant WAR on models for 10+ days. But way out in cartoonland, I am more interested in what may come afterward. As shown by the end of the 12Z EPS, many of these members are weak but are moving briskly westward, which may mean it gets much further west than Larry. This wave comes off Africa ~9/11 and wouldn't have a chance to bother us until after 9/21. With it being a La Nina or at least close to one, AEW's like these should be watched rather closely:

View attachment 89944
Click to expand...

Following up from yesterday:
Today's 12Z EPS has similar activity and may be the next AEW to watch closely in the CONUS for after 9/20:

ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0288.png
 
Interesting thought I had but is there any correlation to more signifigant/ extreme weather happening post landfall of an extremely dangerous and strong hurricane vs like a cat 1 or lower grade
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Interesting thought I had but is there any correlation to more signifigant/ extreme weather happening post landfall of an extremely dangerous and strong hurricane vs like a cat 1 or lower grade
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I know some of the 2004/2005 hurricanes were famous for tornadoes but it seems to vary. I don't remember plenty of other hurricanes making news for it

Also I believe those were like actually in the south where tornadoes happen not in the Mid Atlantic
 
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