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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Followup to what I posted 45 minutes ago: 12Z GFS end of run, just for the record, is a slightly earlier version of the early Oct 1898 landfall on the FL/GA border. But this map has virtually no value obviously:

gfsop_12_h500_gc_h_0372.png
 
BHS1975 said:
If the euro jumps in where in trouble.


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Even if it doesn’t jump in on a specific system yet, the pattern and amount of activity is certainly indicative of the growing possibility of a threat to the southeast coast in the 9/21-9/25 timeframe.
 
Chazwin said:
Even if it doesn’t jump in on a specific system yet, the pattern and amount of activity is certainly indicative of the growing possibility of a threat to the southeast coast in the 9/21-9/25 timeframe.
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Yeah anything in that day 7-10 range will be hard to resolve right now given how chaotic things are with weak tropical waves, upper level energy, old fronts, ridge amplitude changing from run to run
 
SD said:
Yeah anything in that day 7-10 range will be hard to resolve right now given how chaotic things are with weak tropical waves, upper level energy, old fronts, ridge amplitude changing from run to run
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They locked in on Ida way in advance.


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BHS1975 said:
They locked in on Ida way in advance.


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I looked back on this thread. We started posting GFS for Ida on August 17, which is 13 days before landfall.

13 days from today is 9/21, so in the range if it doesn't sit and spin over Bahamas for 3 days as is demonstrated on the 12z version.
 
Get some minor Diana vibes off the gfs. A slow moving bombing homegrown cane. Of course it's so far out who knows
 
Shaggy said:
Get some minor Diana vibes off the gfs. A slow moving bombing homegrown cane. Of course it's so far out who knows
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Yeah… also with the way it stalled that system out east of Florida for a couple days, shows what is certainly one of the possibilities with an overall pattern like the models show. The ridge off the NE coast blocks any path for the storm to go out to sea, but the steering weakens. If that happens like what happened with Diana or even with Florence with the very slow movement near the coast or even over land… you get a massive flooding event.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… also with the way it stalled that system out east of Florida for a couple days, shows what is certainly one of the possibilities with an overall pattern like the models show. The ridge off the NE coast blocks any path for the storm to go out to sea, but the steering weakens. If that happens like what happened with Diana or even with Florence with the very slow movement near the coast or even over land… you get a massive flooding event.
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Looks like the first models of Dorian to me.
 
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