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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

00ZGFS had a weird little looper storm it forms well off Hatteras and loop back into southern SC as a TS.....really just crazy long range GFS stuff
 
Downeastnc said:
Euro ens starting to show some deep tropic love.....

View attachment 90374
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I'm still trying to figure out the vort energy off of the SE coast on the Euro
ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_11.png

Look like it's a combo of one of the 2 systems off of Africa now and the remnant front from the weekend. Gotta keep an eye on this and anything else motoring across the Atlantic the next 2 weeks the door is wide open
 
SD said:
I'm still trying to figure out the vort energy off of the SE coast on the Euro


Look like it's a combo of one of the 2 systems off of Africa now and the remnant front from the weekend. Gotta keep an eye on this and anything else motoring across the Atlantic the next 2 weeks the door is wide open
Click to expand...

Yeah models are a mess with vorts all over really, lots of bagginess over the SW ATL could easily see them firm up on a more legit threat to the SE later in the period....
 
So the super typhoon in the WPAC is a true microcane. Hurricane force winds extend out to 15 miles and TS only out to 70. I find it hard to believe a cleared out 5 mile wide pinhole is only a 140kt cane.
 
SD said:
I'm still trying to figure out the vort energy off of the SE coast on the Euro
View attachment 90377

Look like it's a combo of one of the 2 systems off of Africa now and the remnant front from the weekend. Gotta keep an eye on this and anything else motoring across the Atlantic the next 2 weeks the door is wide open
Click to expand...
Looks like 12z CMC and 06z GFS had some indicators too.



Screenshot_2021-09-08-15-59-26.png

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Watching the GOM again next week as the Caribbean disturbance plays around in western gulf.
 
8PM:

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western
coast of Africa in a few days. Additional development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the far
eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

This is for that AEW emerging from Africa on 9/10-11 that has been discussed for over a week. Whereas a sharp recurve in the E Atlantic is favored, that is far from set in stone as every GFS run since the 12Z of Sunday has kept it weak with a WSW initial move off Africa followed by a W move at or south of 15N moving at least to 60W.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Looks like we might be lucky and only have one major make landfall this year.
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It’s way too early to say that. I hope it’s true, but we know we’ve seen a lot of major Hurricanes making landfall late in September to deep into October the last few years. With H5 looks the models are putting out for the next couple weeks, anything forming could turn into a threat pretty quickly
 
This look could be problematic for the SE if it were real but this is still way out at hour 210:

gfsop_12_h500_gc_h_0210.png

Edit: This is not the wave that is in the TWO that is about to leave Africa. That is recurving much further out in the ocean as a wave as of this time.
 
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