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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

GaWx said:
The 6Z GFS/GEFS and EPS are continuing the idea that the AEW moving offshore Africa 9/10 (GFS) or 9/11 (Euro) (is the same AEW) may very well eventually be something to contend with. The 6Z GFS is the 4th run in a row that gets it near FL ~9/20. Also, this run suggests there may be another active wave a few days behind it. Also, note the strong E US ridge being suggested for around that period.
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12z Icon gives a fairly good presentation of the waves moving west.

Screenshot_2021-09-06-12-11-48.png
 
We’ll round two of tropical activity certainly has proven itself and we weren’t able to be spared … 1 major hurricane landfall unfortunately .. and an absolute beast and beauty ace maker that hopefully remains a fish storm .. along with a couple little flippers .. now we wait for a possible third round of potential AEW Action
 
Henry2326 said:
12z Icon gives a fairly good presentation of the waves moving west.

View attachment 90288
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Also, the 12Z UKMET finally has it as it just moved to within its 144 hour range. This track, too, would mean a likely early recurve but note that this has it a TS right off Africa and a near H within 24 hours, both of which could be too strong:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.6N 15.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2021 120 15.6N 15.7W 998 39
0000UTC 12.09.2021 132 17.3N 18.7W 992 50
1200UTC 12.09.2021 144 18.9N 20.6W 983 57
 
12Z GFS is the 5th run in a row taking this same 9/10-11 emerging AEW into the Caribbean ~9/18 as a result of it staying weak. This wave is what is causing the convection at the Lesser Antilles on the far right in this image:

hMjClcS.png
 
Now the 12Z CMC has it at 17N, 44W at hour 240 moving almost due west:

D7FAB3B1-E872-46B0-AD58-4422D18A64CD.png
 
Just like the prior run, the 12Z Euro has a sharp far E Atlantic recurve of this wave though not as early as the 0Z, which went quickly back into Africa.

This is still evolving as the Euro had it come off Africa way up at 20N a few days ago. Now it is down to 16N and that's still 5 days out. So, far from set in stone yet. It may still recurve sharply, but if it stays weak near Africa, it likely wouldn't sharply recurve.
 
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And for the first time now we have a substantial split with this wave on the 12Z EPS, the sharp recurvers and those left behind moving mainly westward just past 30W, which means lots of uncertainty/this is still evolving:

ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0198.png
 
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I thought we would have more majors making landfall in the US based on the NHC predictions for this year. Ida was enough, though.
 
Let's not forget the last few years have been backloaded in late September and October. Matthew? Michael? Sally? Delta? Zeta? The season is not over by a long shot

Maybe we get lucky and Ida was it but I'd be very surprised. The EPAC has died off there's no sign of an El nino to shut down the season so I see no reason the Atlantic won't pick up again sooner or later
 
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Yeah with that ridging if something can get further west it's gonna have to be watched

And we just saw Grace and Ida blow up close to land
 
Anyone paying attention to the cat 4/5 micro cane in the WPAC that's suppose to maintain that intensity for the next 4 days
 
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