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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Following up from yesterday:
Today's 12Z EPS has similar activity and may be the next AEW to watch closely in the CONUS for after 9/20:

View attachment 90029

Still watching this timeframe as the 0Z EPS still has something coming off Africa ~9/11:

ecmen_00_mslps_ta_h_0258.png

End of the run:
ecmen_00_mslps_ta_h_0360.png

Edited to add 2nd image
 
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12Z Euro, like the 0Z Euro, has a TS just off the coast of Africa 9/11. This is consistent with the EPS runs I’ve been posting. Note how strong the central Atlantic high is to the NNW of it. If that were to verify, this likely wouldn’t recurve early and may even soon after this start moving WSW for a period, which would be a warning signal as Yaakov (jconsor) and I have noted, especially with the La Nina(ish) ENSO:

351E5CD5-8C87-4387-BD65-C531707A37A1.png
 
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12Z EPS continues with a lot of activity in the MDR during the 11-15 day period from various AEWs, which the US may have to monitor for after 9/20:

EE53EAD6-6160-4FB4-9116-462ECFBAB2D4.png
 
Consistent with the above 12Z Euro and the run before that, the 0Z Euro still has a TS from an AEW coming off Africa on 9/11 with a strong high to its NNW:

ecmop_00_h500_ta_h_0210.png

End of run:
ecmop_00_h500_ta_h_0240.png
 
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Consistent with the above 12Z Euro and the run before that, the 0Z Euro still has a TS from an AEW coming off Africa on 9/11 with a strong high to its NNW:

View attachment 90134

End of run:
View attachment 90135

Consistent with the prior 3 Euro runs, the 12Z yet again has a TS just off Africa that originates from an AEW that comes off ~9/11. But this time it comes off quite far north (near 20N) and thus easily recurves just offshore:

ecmop_12_h500_ta_h_0210.png
 
Consistent with the prior 3 Euro runs, the 12Z yet again has a TS just off Africa that originates from an AEW that comes off ~9/11. But this time it comes off quite far north (near 20N) and thus easily recurves just offshore:

View attachment 90165
That's crazy how it almost curves back into the African coast. I don't think I've ever seen that
 
12Z EPS at 360: almost all of these are moving pretty rapidly due W or just N of due W :eek: :eek:

ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0360 (1).png


12Z EPS H5 at 360 has strong ridging to the north allowing for pretty rapid movement W or just N of due W: o_Oo_O
ecmen_12_h500_ta_h_0360.png

The danger is not that this one high would move it all of the way to the other side but rather there's usually a mid ocean weakness followed by a possible handoff to a strengthening WAR.
 
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12Z EPS at 360: almost all of these are moving pretty rapidly due W or just N of due W :eek: :eek:

View attachment 90175


12Z EPS H5 at 360 has strong ridging to the north allowing for pretty rapid movement W or just N of due W: o_Oo_O
View attachment 90176

The danger is not that this one high would move it all of the way to the other side but rather there's usually a mid ocean weakness followed by a possible handoff to a strengthening WAR.
Could this set up the Carolinas to see more tropical impacts potentially instead of gulf?
 
Could this set up the Carolinas to see more tropical impacts potentially instead of gulf?

Who knows? This is just about the general pattern idea according to the Euro and what would appear to be a much further west move of any MDR TC vs Larry’s projection. I’ve been saying the SE US is not at risk from Larry but may very well be at risk after 9/20 from an MDR system based on what the Euro suite has been showing combined with La Niña climo.
 
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