That's pretty close to the climo setup to get a system well west in the Carolinas. Bermuda ridge is far enough SE though where it could escape otsSo close to a great rain setup with this look View attachment 90576
That's pretty close to the climo setup to get a system well west in the Carolinas. Bermuda ridge is far enough SE though where it could escape otsSo close to a great rain setup with this look View attachment 90576
Yeah now trying to build the ridge over top, wetter days might be aheadGfs is going to be well east, it never really builds the ridge in over top
Edit, I guess it could bend back west or go into the NE but that doesn't seem likely
Edit 2 just disregard everything I've said here lol it's trying to take a hard left at 162
This reminds me of a Ida situationI think the disturbance entering the GOM needs to be watched closely. Currently, a minor threat to Mexico and Texas, and Louisiana can't be ruled out either.
If it can stay out of Mexico it has some potential. I'm kind of surprised this isn't an invest yetI think the disturbance entering the GOM needs to be watched closely. Currently, a minor threat to Mexico and Texas, and Louisiana can't be ruled out either.
If it can stay out of Mexico it has some potential. I'm kind of surprised this isn't an invest yet
Yeah the 12z euro tangled it up with Mexico, the 18z gfs was a little more impressive. Looks like a case where the Atlantic and pacific are fighting for dominance as wellModels don't do much.
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Not in any way to be confused with a comparison to IDA, but like IDA, much will depend on whether the northern portion of the vorticity becomes dominant which would tend to keep further offshore Mexico. By 48 hours, the environment looks pretty decent in the SW Gulf.Yeah the 12z euro tangled it up with Mexico, the 18z gfs was a little more impressive. Looks like a case where the Atlantic and pacific are fighting for dominance as well
Somewhat, yes I agree.This reminds me of a Ida situation