pcbjr
Member
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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
And “Looney Tunes” it may very well be based on much quieter GFS suites for next weekend in the western Caribbean. Looking awfully phantomish now.
All of the 12Z model runs look about as tame as one could hope for during the second climo peak with regard to their suggested CONUS TC threat levels through the end (10/18). But as @pcbjr always reminds us, they're just unreliable cartoons. So, don't bet the farm on their quietness and stay tuned.
12z GEFS as regards CONUS: other than hints that there MAY be a rogue TC form offshore the SE US that mills around similar to the 12Z GFS at midmonth due to being stuck underneath a strong NE US ridge, the run is still about as quiet one could hope for during this secondary climo peak all of the way to the end of the run fwiw.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah the gfs op run was interesting to say the least. The gfs has been persistent about building some unsettled weather over the western Atlantic for many runs.
I wonder how the development over the big islands would move of that low didn't pop off the SE coast.
Nothing looks threatening but we have lots of time to watch this mess off the southeast coast.
lexxnchloe
Member
12 GFS has 2 storms in the SW ATL.
The 12Z EPS is about as quiet as you can have it during this often active period. Does that mean it will actually be quiet? I find it hard to believe in La Nina with very warm SSTs, especially in the Caribbean, but we'll see. The area off the SE coast may still have to be monitored with strong ridging to the north (ROTW pattern).
lexxnchloe
Member
The middle of Oct is Hazel time. With that high and trof we could have another Hazel.
Shaggy
Member
Disclaimer: this is a HH GFS run
I'll take a hard pass on the foot of rain it gives us in eastern NC. Just goes to show we still have many runs and many looks to go before this is pattern is clear.
lexxnchloe
Member
I knew it was Hazel time. I called it first.
Shaggy
Member
If that NE high can get a little further offshore that late development over Puerto Rico may have a harder time scooting out
Shaggy
Member
The gfs seems to be stuck in happy hour with these runs its been spitting out.
Downeastnc
Member
First time in recorded history of a legit hurricane landfalling in Oman.....places got 4-5 YEARS worth of rain in 12-18 hrs.....
lexxnchloe
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Hurricane season still going?
Brent
Member
I dunno yet
The last two runs of GEFS, 12Z and 18Z, suggest an increasing/potential threat to S FL ~10/19-23 from a W Caribbean genesis near 10/18-21. Looking back at history, ~10/17-21 has been quite the active period frequency-wise in or near S FL. So, something to monitor for especially S FL.
smast16
Member
