Im surprised no one posted about this.
Starts south of Cuba .
It is interesting, the GFS has some version of this in varying degrees and locations every run.....its also part of the reason why GAWX happy hr maps are so insane lol..
Im surprised no one posted about this.
Starts south of Cuba .
Yeah the gfs is by far the most enthusiastic with the entire gyre and eventual spin up which as you said leads to the gefs looking threatening. When the cmc and its ens are unenthusuatic it gives me pauseIt is interesting, the GFS has some version of this in varying degrees and locations every run.....its also part of the reason why GAWX happy hr maps are so insane lol..
Yeah the gfs is by far the most enthusiastic with the entire gyre and eventual spin up which as you said leads to the gefs looking threatening. When the cmc and its ens are unenthusuatic it gives me pause
Yeah there have been some recent analogs that had some of the systems from the deep Caribbean showing up but they are gfs based so it makes sense they would lol. These gyre systems in that area are always so messy to resolve for every wilma/Ida you have 2 storms that had 40 little vorts competing and nothing got going. All things considered though with the big ridge in the east we certainly will have the potential to see something get going in that areaNo doubt but GFS has led the way several times this year and that whole evolution looks very Octoberey.....
Just flipping through the gfs and looking at satellite it like like the wave near the islands may be part of what the gfs keys on to really get this system going
Lord, Larry, I thought we were friends ... ?
Lord, Larry, I thought we were friends ... ?
Well, since I'm largely working from home and my boss can't see me (LOL) I'm open to discussion ... ?Well, the good news is that the 12Z Euro has nothing of the sort. Neither does the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite. So, the GFS suite may be on crack for all we know. The uncertainty makes for interesting discussions.
Well, since I'm largely working from home and my boss can't see me (LOL) I'm open to discussion ... ?
I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for the SE US specifically) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar). Any feelings on the implications?
Goes out over 15 days so implications are hard to gauge ... where's the high's, where's the lows, where's the jet and so on ... having said that, I strongly suspect that a front is gonna stall in the Gulf sometime in the next 2 - 3 weeks and offer an opportunity for somehing to kick up ... and having said that ... if my forecasting skills are any indication ... we're done with named storms ... ?I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for the SE US specifically) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar). Any feelings on the implications?