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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

lexxnchloe said:
Im surprised no one posted about this.

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Starts south of Cuba .
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It is interesting, the GFS has some version of this in varying degrees and locations every run.....its also part of the reason why GAWX happy hr maps are so insane lol..
 
Downeastnc said:
It is interesting, the GFS has some version of this in varying degrees and locations every run.....its also part of the reason why GAWX happy hr maps are so insane lol..
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Yeah the gfs is by far the most enthusiastic with the entire gyre and eventual spin up which as you said leads to the gefs looking threatening. When the cmc and its ens are unenthusuatic it gives me pause
 
SD said:
Yeah the gfs is by far the most enthusiastic with the entire gyre and eventual spin up which as you said leads to the gefs looking threatening. When the cmc and its ens are unenthusuatic it gives me pause
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No doubt but GFS has led the way several times this year and that whole evolution looks very Octoberey.....
 
Downeastnc said:
No doubt but GFS has led the way several times this year and that whole evolution looks very Octoberey.....
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Yeah there have been some recent analogs that had some of the systems from the deep Caribbean showing up but they are gfs based so it makes sense they would lol. These gyre systems in that area are always so messy to resolve for every wilma/Ida you have 2 storms that had 40 little vorts competing and nothing got going. All things considered though with the big ridge in the east we certainly will have the potential to see something get going in that area
 
Just flipping through the gfs and looking at satellite it like like the wave near the islands may be part of what the gfs keys on to really get this system going
 
6Z GEFS mean shows classic “Ridge Over Troubled Waters” pattern in the 6-10 day period and one can see the result during the 11-15 day period:

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SD said:
Just flipping through the gfs and looking at satellite it like like the wave near the islands may be part of what the gfs keys on to really get this system going
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Yeah part of the wave ( maybe use to be a invest ) around 50-55W way down around 12N looks to be the focus south of Cuba....maybe......lol its hard to tell.

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Just checking the time. No, it is way too early for Happy Hour. Nevertheless: :eek:

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pcbjr said:
Lord, Larry, I thought we were friends ... ?
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Well, the good news is that the 12Z Euro has nothing of the sort. Neither does the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite. So, the GFS suite may be on crack for all we know. The uncertainty makes for interesting discussions.
 
GaWx said:
Well, the good news is that the 12Z Euro has nothing of the sort. Neither does the 12Z Crazy Uncle suite. So, the GFS suite may be on crack for all we know. The uncertainty makes for interesting discussions.
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Well, since I'm largely working from home and my boss can't see me (LOL) I'm open to discussion ... ?
 
pcbjr said:
Well, since I'm largely working from home and my boss can't see me (LOL) I'm open to discussion ... ?
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It may not look like much but the 12Z EPS, unlike the prior run's no TCs then, actually has 3 members with TCs in the far W Caribbean at hour 156 when the 12Z GEFS starts going to town: could it be that the EPS is just slow to catch on?

Here is the 12Z EPS 156 with 3 TCs:

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Here was the 0Z EPS with none:

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The 3 TCs later in the 12Z EPS run when the 0Z EPS had none:

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I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for the SE US specifically) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar). Any feelings on the implications?

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GaWx said:
I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for the SE US specifically) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar). Any feelings on the implications?

DqFDiSC.png
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Basic form is it sucks for deer season thats opening soon.
 
GaWx said:
I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for the SE US specifically) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar). Any feelings on the implications?

DqFDiSC.png
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Goes out over 15 days so implications are hard to gauge ... where's the high's, where's the lows, where's the jet and so on ... having said that, I strongly suspect that a front is gonna stall in the Gulf sometime in the next 2 - 3 weeks and offer an opportunity for somehing to kick up ... and having said that ... if my forecasting skills are any indication ... we're done with named storms ... ?

... and FWIW and being a tad bit dated ...

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And right on schedule, here is the Happy Hour GFS doing Happy Hour things:

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And now there's this offshore the SE US on the HH GFS, similar to prior runs but trapped this time with ridging to the north: Is this also a ghost? I don't know but this is a classic "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern fwiw:

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This thing off the Atlantic gets S FL on the 18Z GFS:
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Hold on, folks, the HH GEFS is looking to be a wild one again.

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All of the 12Z model runs look about as tame as one could hope for during the second climo peak with regard to their suggested CONUS TC threat levels through the end (10/18). But as @pcbjr always reminds us, they're just unreliable cartoons. So, don't bet the farm on their quietness and stay tuned.
 
12z GEFS as regards CONUS: other than hints that there MAY be a rogue TC form offshore the SE US that mills around similar to the 12Z GFS at midmonth due to being stuck underneath a strong NE US ridge, the run is still about as quiet one could hope for during this secondary climo peak all of the way to the end of the run fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
12z GEFS as regards CONUS: other than hints that there MAY be a rogue TC form offshore the SE US that mills around similar to the 12Z GFS at midmonth due to being stuck underneath a strong NE US ridge, the run is still about as quiet one could hope for during this secondary climo peak all of the way to the end of the run fwiw.
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Yeah the gfs op run was interesting to say the least. The gfs has been persistent about building some unsettled weather over the western Atlantic for many runs.

I wonder how the development over the big islands would move of that low didn't pop off the SE coast.

Nothing looks threatening but we have lots of time to watch this mess off the southeast coast.
 
The 12Z EPS is about as quiet as you can have it during this often active period. Does that mean it will actually be quiet? I find it hard to believe in La Nina with very warm SSTs, especially in the Caribbean, but we'll see. The area off the SE coast may still have to be monitored with strong ridging to the north (ROTW pattern).
 
If that NE high can get a little further offshore that late development over Puerto Rico may have a harder time scooting out
 
First time in recorded history of a legit hurricane landfalling in Oman.....places got 4-5 YEARS worth of rain in 12-18 hrs.....



 
The last two runs of GEFS, 12Z and 18Z, suggest an increasing/potential threat to S FL ~10/19-23 from a W Caribbean genesis near 10/18-21. Looking back at history, ~10/17-21 has been quite the active period frequency-wise in or near S FL. So, something to monitor for especially S FL.
 
The 0Z GEFS also has a good bit of activity for in and near the same period.
 
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