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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Myfrotho704_ said:
I think what makes this more believable is that we’re already in the process, it would be totally different if we was in a southeast ridge and looked to be for the next 7-10 days then switch cold, that’s when I find things funny. the next 10 days averaged out look slight BN. We already started the process in the pacific days ago
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Myfrotho704_ said:
I think what makes this more believable is that we’re already in the process, it would be totally different if we was in a southeast ridge and looked to be for the next 7-10 days then switch cold, that’s when I find things funny. the next 10 days averaged out look slight BN. We already started the process in the pacific days ago
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It makes sense given the pattern and the modeled transition. Just being so far out it's hard to give it much weight at this point so I don't want to hype myself...and oh my gosh I can't stop.


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brendan123 said:
One 5”-7” event and a few dustings… haven’t gotten anywhere near that since 2018 but my average is ~6” and considering we’re entering a good pattern, that doesn’t seem too out there
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And you live in Virginia? Thats pretty wild. Middle Tennessee is going to pay dearly at some point for the recent stellar winters though. I remember from 2006-2014 it felt like North Carolina did better then middle Tennessee a lot of years. It seems since 2015 that has changed a lot. I’m sure at some point North Carolina folks will start getting snows that make us jealous out here. For now I’m going to enjoy it will it last. With the early snows this winter and the pattern ahead this could really be an epic winter for middle Tennessee this year. It’s already an A+ to me from this last storm since it put used above our seasonal average.
 
I fully expect one event where my yard is completely covered. Those have been hard to come by the last few years. I haven’t seen a decent snowfall since 12/8/17. Bham is tough because we have so many events where we get missed just to the north, but we also get those events where we get missed just to the south. Hopefully our time is coming.

I don’t fret to hard over it because I’ll take a trip to gatlinburg about once a winter to chase one, but nothing beats one in your own backyard.
 
olhausen said:
And you live in Virginia? Thats pretty wild.
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Yeah, SEVA seems to have a climate more like the coastal plain of NC than anywhere else in the actual state of Virginia. The Chesapeake Bay really moderates any extreme cold (I haven't been below 25 degrees since right after the 2018 blizzard) and when nor'easters occur (which tend to give the rest of Virginia most of their extreme snows), we get left out as the warm water tends to push the R/S line 10-15 miles inland. I don't really mind though as it makes it really special when it actually does snow
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah if this ends up like Feb 2021 and then we retrograde into a -PNA/SER after I may end up with a weenie tag! ???
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Same, I have a feeling around jan 29th-feb 6th we’ll go back to a -PNA/SER combo, although I’m sure that lead to a cold March lol, but anyways we have 20 days or so to take advantage of what we have C407F91D-58FE-4885-925E-0F277146ED19.png
 
The warmer start to jan really put a damper on the chances of a BN jan, looking at the next 10-15 days, it looks slightly BN-BN, we have a small shot imo at slightly BN for the month overall 0A8EA0F3-E7F1-4496-A059-CF978A6F06A2.png
 
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