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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

SD said:
Easy. Watch. 3 winter events 3 inches of snow. Still BN. D+ winter
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i just don't get it. i've seen more than 2-4" once in the last 12 years so idk why my expectation should be higher
 
jackendrickwx said:
one solid measurable 2-4" snow is where my expectation sits. that plus flakes flying other times and plenty of cold = a good winter in my book
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RDU’s climo is 5-6” and I’m in Durham, so it’s probably even higher here. 3” is piddly, I’m not happy. It’s better than the last two winters, but I’m not shooting for tallest midget here. ?
 
Lickwx said:
Didn’t Webber calculate our median snowfall to be like 3.8 inches or something ? Besides winter isn’t over .
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Given how the average is likely right-skewed, it may indeed be, but I’m not happy if winter ended today regardless. RDU is at 2.3” on the season, that’s pathetic!!
 
jackendrickwx said:
i just don't get it. i've seen more than 2-4" once in the last 12 years so idk why my expectation should be higher
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My perception has been skewed by previous great winters I guess. This winter has been ok but there's nothing that's extraordinary about it at all yet. It's basically been what you'd expect here imo
 
superjames1992 said:
RDU’s climo is 5-6” and I’m in Durham, so it’s probably even higher here. 3” is piddly, I’m not happy. It’s better than the last two winters, but I’m not shooting for tallest midget here. ?
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The NC weenies starting to sound a lot like the mid Atlantic ones . Just sayin. Dissatisfied and spiteful of anyone who gets more .
 
superjames1992 said:
RDU’s climo is 5-6” and I’m in Durham, so it’s probably even higher here. 3” is piddly, I’m not happy. It’s better than the last two winters, but I’m not shooting for tallest midget here. ?
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Last two winters have taught me to take what i can get. If 3" is what i can get, and a super fun event at that, then i will take it gladly
 
SD said:
My perception has been skewed by previous great winters I guess. This winter has been ok but there's nothing that's extraordinary about it at all yet. It's basically been what you'd expect here imo
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It’s been an average January I’d say . You’d be unsatisfied if your expectations were anything more than average really .
 
Lickwx said:
The NC weenies starting to sound a lot like the mid Atlantic ones . Just sayin. Dissatisfied and spiteful of anyone who gets more .
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I haven’t seen a big snow in years, bro. I need it for my sanity. The 2.3” I got last week is the biggest storm I’ve gotten since 2015 and that makes me sad.
 
CyclonicFury said:
You know things have been bad here in recent years when we try to act like a 2-3 inch total is a good winter.
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I know, right? Geez, low expectations are infecting some here. My expectations may be too high, but no way some 2-3” storm is going to make me satisfied with winter. I live in North Carolina, not South Georgia. ?
 
Lickwx said:
Didn’t Webber calculate our median snowfall to be like 3.8 inches or something ? Besides winter isn’t over .
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Here is RDU's running 20yr snowfall average....once 2004 rolls off in a couple of years it will drop to 3.4". Dropping quicker than Bitcoin.

1980: 8.1
1990: 8.0
2000: 6.9
2010: 5.9
2020: 5.0
 
Lickwx said:
Hey your the one who went to Florida for a few years !
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I know, and I missed out on some good ones while I was gone. Still, I figured I’d see something worthwhile after three winters back, but apparently not. Well, last week’s snowstorm was solid even if it was only 2.3”, but I need more.
 
CyclonicFury said:
You know things have been bad here in recent years when we try to act like a 2-3 inch total is a good winter.
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Thank you. It was a nice event to have, it made me excited about winter again, and gave me validation snow does indeed cover grass but good grief it ain't special. If we had 6/8/10 yeah I'd say this was a good winter
 
KyloG said:
Here is RDU's running 20yr snowfall average....once 2004 rolls off in a couple of years it will drop to 3.4". Dropping quicker than Bitcoin.

1980: 8.1
1990: 8.0
2000: 6.9
2010: 5.9
2020: 5.0
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God that’s bad. We need the 2020s to deliver. I think the 1990s were pretty bad snow wise, so there’s a solid chance our 2001-2030 average will be higher, at least. Except January 2000 will also be coming off the board…
 
SD said:
Thank you. It was a nice event to have, it made me excited about winter again, and gave me validation snow does indeed cover grass but good grief it ain't special. If we had 6/8/10 yeah I'd say this was a good winter
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i also have a much smaller frame of reference, as have only been hardcore following wx about 3 years now. + come from worse snow climo
 
SD said:
Probably what's best for you. I can't erase 96, 00. 02, 04, 09 from my memory
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I first started really getting into this stuff in the winter of 2008-2009, and in the first couple years I had January 2009, March 2009, December 2009, January 2010, February 2010, March 2010, and then December to Remember 2010. Then after a couple bad winters, 2013-2014 delivered and 2015 had a couple events in February, including a big dog at the end of the month. Now we can’t buy a good storm..
 
jackendrickwx said:
yeah but those are the outliers. no reason to expect anything close to that
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I don't think they are statistically that much of an outlier here. I don't think you should get it yearly but we haven't had a truly large event in a long time imby. Obviously rdu did well in 17/18
 
SD said:
I don't think they are statistically that much of an outlier here. I don't think you should get it yearly but we haven't had a truly large event in a long time imby. Obviously rdu did well in 17/18
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Exactly. This period is similar to the mid-2000s. It’s been a long time since we’ve had a big event, and that is actually unusual. Statistically, RDU averages an 8” storm something like once every right winters. Currently, it’s been 20 years since the last one, I believe (January 2002).
 
SD said:
I don't think they are statistically that much of an outlier here. I don't think you should get it yearly but we haven't had a truly large event in a long time imby. Obviously rdu did well in 17/18
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Steep drop off from RDU to your backyard . I’d wager you average 3 inches to rdus 5. RDU is really hard to compare to when it’s the most NW spot of the county essentially .
 
I’ll admit, let myself get too high expectations for this event earlier in the week, and now I’m a bit Meh on it. Started salivating at thought of a coastal bomb near Hatteras cranking up and crashing the column. RAH mentioned cyclogenesis in a few afds. My own fault though. I always have higher expectations when I see snow on the ground too, so its partly psychological.
 
Getting .6 of an inch of precipitation with the column below freezing really shouldn't be such a hard thing, even down here. But it has become almost an annual impossibility, with seemingly no combinations of atmospheric elements to make that happen. Cold chasing moisture, no problem. Miller B slopfest, no problem. Miller A and big snow over the Gulf Stream, no problem. ULL destroy the western piedmont, no problem. Late bloomer Mid-Atlantic crush job, no problem. Year after year.
 
Rain Cold said:
Getting .6 of an inch of precipitation with the column below freezing really shouldn't be such a hard thing, even down here. But it has become almost an annual impossibility, with seemingly no combinations of atmospheric elements to make that happen. Cold chasing moisture, no problem. Miller B slopfest, no problem. Miller A and big snow over the Gulf Stream, no problem. ULL destroy the western piedmont, no problem. Late bloomer Mid-Atlantic crush job, no problem. Year after year.
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Things don’t work like they used to . Got to have the good winters go away before they come back
 
Lickwx said:
Steep drop off from RDU to your backyard . I’d wager you average 3 inches to rdus 5. RDU is really hard to compare to when it’s the most NWS spot of the county essentially .
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In the recent past 1-2 decades yeah I bet the drop off is insane but I bet over the last 100-120 years it's not as dramatic. The lack of a -nao the last 7 years is killing SE wake
 
superjames1992 said:
Exactly. This period is similar to the mid-2000s. It’s been a long time since we’ve had a big event, and that is actually unusual. Statistically, RDU averages an 8” storm something like once every right winters. Currently, it’s been 20 years since the last one, I believe (January 2002).
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I'm honestly surprised RDU hasn't gone an entire winter without measurable snow during this period. We easily could have in 2019-20 or 2020-21. Even 2018-19 had nothing here after the early December winter storm.
 
This storm is just annoying at this point because we really don't have this much potential very often, and it feels completely wasted. This really was closer than the records will end up showing. For us on the wrong side of town this will go down in my mind as a much closer miss than all those storms that we rain at 33 while points NW get blasted. Just need Brick in here saying -NAO's don't matter to top it off.
 
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