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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Rain Cold said:
You know me man...most of the time, I'm going to ride out with you and suit up with the cold first jersey. In this case, if we get light precip, honestly, who cares if it's rain or snow. It's going to come down in the middle of the night and probably won't amount to more than a dusting. But if we get rapid cyclogenesis off the coast, there will be plenty of precipitation and plenty of that will be snow. It won't be efficient at first, but it'll get there.
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Ground temps won't be a problem and either will surface temps if we get precipitation at a decent rate.
 
Rain Cold said:
You know me man...most of the time, I'm going to ride out with you and suit up with the cold first jersey. In this case, if we get light precip, honestly, who cares if it's rain or snow. It's going to come down in the middle of the night and probably won't amount to more than a dusting. But if we get rapid cyclogenesis off the coast, there will be plenty of precipitation and plenty of that will be snow. It won't be efficient at first, but it'll get there.
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That's my whole point. These boys riding the 10:1 ratio maps to glory, and i'm just like, it's won't be that great.
 
This one is far from over. The northern piece has the likelihood of dropping a few inches for some, regardless if the coastal goes wide right. Wouldn’t be a big dog, but it’s still there.
 
Rain Cold said:
Checks notes

1. GFS bias holding energy back in the SW
2. Energy not sampled yet
3. Model initialization errors
4. Convective feedback, ignore run
5. Old run clear cache
6. Volcano
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Make a dichotomous key for number 6 say

If yes to volcano go to 7. 7 just says superstorm 93.
 
blueheronNC said:
Our annual minimum temp these days is equivalent to what north Florida had back in the 70s and 80s where palm trees grow native and wild. Might as well make the flora here match the new averages.
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Thats misleading, our minimum temp is still considerably colder than what north Florida had in the 70s and 80s. Its milder than the 70s and 80s but not like north Florida.
 
We went through a stretch in the mid-late 2010s where we had some very cold minimum temperatures here. In 2013-14 and 2014-15 we had a low of 7, in 2016-17 we had a low of 9, and in 2017-18 we had a low of 4.
 
After that GFS run I’m going to microwave some popcorn and head over to an MA/NE forum. Guilty pleasure!


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Lickwx said:
Thats misleading, our minimum temp is still considerbaly colder than what north Florida had in the 70s and 80s. Its milder than the 70s and 80s but not like north Florida.
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Not too many Palm Varieties can handle that 13 degrees we just had here. Pretty much windmill only. Everyone looks at me funny when I dig up my bananas but they can't do our climate.
 
Lickwx said:
Thats misleading, our minimum temp is still considerably colder than what north Florida had in the 70s and 80s. Its milder than the 70s and 80s but not like north Florida.
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I still haven’t dropped below 20F since 2018 here in urban Raleigh. Tallahassee always made it into the teens pretty much every year back then.
 
I am never going against the RGEM ever again. That’s a dang good model.


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Thor said:
Not too many Palm Varieties can handle that 13 degrees we just had here. Pretty much windmill only. Everyone looks at me funny when I dig up my bananas but they can't do our climate.
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sabal palms handle as cold as 7 before dying. sabal minor and needle even colder. Windmill handle down to 0 as well as sabal minor. I saw some bannanas growing new fronds but not from the roots during December. Mild December.

Only palms I would plant here in raleigh would be sabal/needle/windmills and maybe a butia , a sago though technically thats not a real palm.
 
blueheronNC said:
I still haven’t dropped below 20F since 2018 here in urban Raleigh. Tallahassee always made it into the teens pretty much every year back then.
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Remember when it bottomed out well into the single digits in 2018, though? Also, we’ve now dropped into the teens area wide several times this winter, hard to believe it never happened there, though I guess UHI is doing its thing. Keep in mind Tallahassee’s airport is out of town, like RDU.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I am never going against the RGEM ever again. That’s a dang good model.


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It was great last week but it's missed before. Could it be right this week, very good chance, could it be wrong, also a very good chance lol
Some models do better with certain setups then others, just because one was horrible with the last one doesn't mean we should completely ignore it and just because one nailed it doesn't make it the final word for the next one.
 
metwannabe said:
It was great last week but it's missed before. Could it be right this week, very good chance, could it be wrong, also a very good chance lol
Some models do better with certain setups then others, just because one was horrible with the last one doesn't mean we should completely ignore it and just because one nailed it doesn't make it the final word for the next one.
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The RGEM was pretty awful with the system before last week’s, IIRC. It’s funny how short everyone’s memories are.
 
The NCSU weather station which is the closest to urban Raleigh id say has been averaging annual coldest minimums 2-3 degrees warmer than rdu each year.
 
Heelyes said:
Good luck with that, maybe you should 've the first citrus farmer up here?
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One of my neighbors has the palm varieties Lickwx mentions (sabal minor, windmill, needle palms), perhaps all from Gary’s. They also have a live oak that’s reaching significant size. All were planted back in 2008 and are still thriving.
 
Lickwx said:
sabal palms handle as cold as 7 before dying. sabal minor and needle even colder. Windmill handle down to 0 as well as sabal minor. I saw some bannanas growing new fronds but not from the roots during December. Mild December.

Only palms I would plant here in raleigh would be sabal/needle/windmills and maybe a butia , a sago though technically thats not a real palm.
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I've tried sabals twice and I'll get them going just fine but then lose them eventually, it's annoying I consider them to just be more sensitive in general. I'm in a bit of a valley and the cold settles down into it at times. Parents over in Archers lodge also lost theirs. I'd say we are the northern extent of their range without a lot of winter protection.
 
I have a neighbor who had the misfortune of planting his florida grown sabal palms in the worst year. 2014. Keep in mind this is 0 uhi, north facing, no protection, open field where he had em. 2 of the 4 originals died at 7 degrees which is the quoted temp where they begin to die. He replaced the 2 . Then 2015 happened and he lost another 2 at 7 degrees. Replanted. 2018 came and he lost 3 of the 4 with one survivor. Zebulon was likely 0-1 degrees in this case. He offered no protection to them. Sabals are pretty darn hardy. These were the beach kind too not the dwarf type that are hardy down to around subzero. The one survivor is still going strong with a very full crown. Oh , and in 2017 when it hit 9 he lost none of them. They had partial defoliation but were fine.
 
So far the winners in the south winter weather wise has been the Carolinas especially this month it’s been definitely there year even though other areas has seen a bit of winter weather
 
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