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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

NoSnowATL said:
Well JB days 2-3week of January we start winter. Let’s see how it turns out this time.
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olhausen said:
I wonder if December will be warmer then November. I believe I was 5-6 degrees below average in Nov.
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In much of the SE, December will end up several degrees warmer than November.

Charlotte is very likely headed to the largest warming from Nov to Dec on record. If they end up with the predicted 52.9 and considering Nov was 49.6, the warming would be 3.3. The strongest warming from Nov to Dec on record is only 2.9 (1956) with 1889’s 2.8 in 2nd and 1984’s 2.2 in 3rd.

The predicted 55.7 at KATL would be 2.8 warmer than November’s 52.9. However, that much warming would put it only in 4th place with 1889’s warming from Nov to Dec of a whopping 5.5!

KSAV’s November to December warming is predicted to be easily the largest on record. The current largest is 1984’s 3.7.
The prediction is for a whopping 4.8!

I keep hoping like a weenie that we’re in a 1984-5 pattern and that January of 2022 will slightly resemble the historic January of 1985 because of how Nov and Dec of 2021 resemble 1984 and also since ENSO is in a very similarly strengthed 2nd year La Niña. But alas, even a slight resemblance to 1985 appears unlikely at this time. But we’ll see. Note I said just slight resemblance.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
This pattern change is occurring after that period
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This is the beginning of the pattern change on the Gfs still on my later side of my guess but off by a few days give or take from a call 1-2 weeks ago while everyone was canceling winter and saying to punt January .. lol I was stoned for even believing we could get a cold front in early January 10D04479-713C-47A2-8606-7BD5F792E6F4.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is the beginning of the pattern change on the Gfs still on my later side of my guess but off by a few days give or take from a call 1-2 weeks ago while everyone was canceling winter and saying to punt January .. lol I was stoned for even believing we could get a cold front in early January View attachment 99210
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I also thought that period would be the rough time frame for a pattern change in early Dec but it’s mostly occurring beyond this window and even I was too fast
 
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NickyBGuarantee said:
This is the beginning of the pattern change on the Gfs still on my later side of my guess but off by a few days give or take from a call 1-2 weeks ago while everyone was canceling winter and saying to punt January .. lol I was stoned for even believing we could get a cold front in early January View attachment 99210
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Lets see what the GEFS shows. We had a weenie cold Op gfs run earlier this week and it quickly disappeared and was not agreed upon the ensembles
 
Webberweather53 said:
I also thought that period would be the rough time frame for a pattern change in early Dec but it’s mostly occurring beyond this window and even I was too fast
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True but hey at least we weren’t calling for pre Christmas change ups that would have gone up in coal
 
Totally random thoughts tonight as I look over the posts here and around the internet for what the future may hold the next several weeks of winter. I will say, it definitely takes a totally different approach & a lot more patience to be able to grapple with + foretell changes at subseasonal scales vs day to day synoptic-meso-micro scale operational weather forecasting that most (even degreed Mets) have trouble with. On a week-to-week basis and beyond, the e-folding scales (~10-80 days) of phenomena are of the same order of magnitude as climate variability (~ 100 days - several years) and you have to start factoring in things like ENSO, (even climate change in some cases), etc. Subseasonal forecasting becomes more of a boundary layer problem (as is the case with climate) than an initial state one as we see with day to day weather. It’s truly the Wild West/no-man’s-land in the field of meteorology and there’s exponentially increasing demand for forecasts and insight in this band few truly understand. Subseasonal forecasting is the bridge between weather and climate, and unlike either of those, is not regularly taught by most college met programs and is the least understood. Young atmospheric science students coming up through school today certainly would have the potential to really set themselves apart from the rest if they are able to obtain at least a solid, foundational understanding of subseasonal variability. I can certainly attest even from my current job, that the demand for this kind of meteorological information has grown precipitously in just the last 5 or so years and will only likely continue to do so going forward.
 
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