• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Relax. The pattern isn't supposed to change until early January st the earliest. 384 hr models are terrible. The MJO is moving into phase 7 and 8 as soon as the typhoon gets out of the way. There's too much blocking to allow for a SE ridge. Models always struggle during pattern changes. They're just as likely to flip back colder next run. The Pacific plus blocking will shake everything up. Plus, the strat PV is taking a beating. And the CFS keeps periodically showing cold and snowy forecasts. It usually shows a warm solutions.

What'd I miss?

Edit: I knew I forgot one! Models aways flip flop during major pattern changes.
 
Last edited:
Rain Cold said:
Relax. The pattern isn't supposed to change until early January st the earliest. 384 hr models are terrible. The MJO is moving into phase 7 and 8 as soon as the typhoon gets out of the way. There's too much blocking to allow for a SE ridge. Models always struggle during pattern changes. They're just as likely to flip back colder next run. The Pacific plus blocking will shake everything up. Plus, the strat PV is taking a beating. And the CFS keeps periodically showing cold and snowy forecasts. It usually shows a warm solutions.

What'd I miss?
Click to expand...
Tell me it's going to be ok
 
Rain Cold said:
Relax. The pattern isn't supposed to change until early January st the earliest. 384 hr models are terrible. The MJO is moving into phase 7 and 8 as soon as the typhoon gets out of the way. There's too much blocking to allow for a SE ridge. Models always struggle during pattern changes. They're just as likely to flip back colder next run. The Pacific plus blocking will shake everything up. Plus, the strat PV is taking a beating. And the CFS keeps periodically showing cold and snowy forecasts. It usually shows a warm solutions.

What'd I miss?

Edit: I knew I forgot one! Models aways flip flop during major pattern changes.
Click to expand...
Yep that's what I was getting at in the main thread. If we flip to the New Year and still can't see a pattern change showing up we may have reason to be worried. But right now any potential change is at the tail end of the run where models are horrendous. I didn't like the image fro posted from the op Euro and analyzed it verbatim even though I know its wrong. But I don't have anything else to do because this Panthers game is terrible lol
 
December 27- January 3rd are when I expect the rumblings to happen .. if we don’t have a good pattern shown within this time frame in a medium range set of hours like 180-270 .. then I’ll be worried … but again it’s late December we don’t ever get going usually until late January and February so I’m really not bugging out if even then we don’t see a good pattern but I will be quite sad and upset for no snow and also upset my call went wrong
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
December 27- January 3rd are when I expect the rumblings to happen .. if we don’t have a good pattern shown within this time frame in a medium range set of hours like 180-270 .. then I’ll be worried … but again it’s late December we don’t ever get going usually until late January and February so I’m really not bugging out if even then we don’t see a good pattern but I will be quite sad and upset for no snow and also upset my call went wrong
Click to expand...
At least your call wasn’t as bad as bamwx
 
Poimen said:
I mentioned back in early November that I was taking a five-week sabbatical in January and the first week of February. I've been holding off on reserving a place because I don't want to travel out west if it's going to turn cold/snowy in the east. I'm going to wait one more week, but right now I'm definitely leaning toward heading west.
Click to expand...
Head to North Dakota. They seem to be in a great spot. If the cold dumps west they still get the fringes of it and if it dumps east they're ground zero when it enters the lower 48. That's one of the only areas in the country that the 30 year average actually cooled it think.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The 3rd still has a chance. Or at least we may be able to see the change in medium range by then. But the first part of that window is toast lol
Click to expand...
My mentality is that the west has to have a true Arctic outbreak before we see one. Now sometimes it stays in the west but maybe it will slide east
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top