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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

High lifts further north in 06z GFS compared to 00z, to provide an even further east escape.....

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Yeah the 00Z was close to being too close to NC if the storm turned a little less sharply or was moving faster etc, the OBX has dealt with a lot of overwash and beach erosion this year they need a month or two to get ready for the Noreasters.....
 
12z GFS again has a GOM hurricane moving west. The southeast ridge blocks it from escaping north. Of course this is way out there in fantasy land.B80DB1F4-1B6D-4EFF-B43B-2723DAE5C565.png
 
18 z gefs Thanks to the SER:

:eek: :eek: :eek:

zH8mgnR.png


zVF5YS1.png


:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Sorry DD. but this proves once and for all that the SER is truly evil.

Also, this would be so 2020!
 
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And just like that....the models say nothing to look at next week.

Funny you say this because the 12Z UKMET is its first run that has a bonafide TC, which in this case is a 1001 mb TD (it is in the NW Bahamas moving NE):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 23.8N 80.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2020 132 23.8N 80.6W 1002 28
1200UTC 25.10.2020 144 25.1N 78.7W 1001 31
 
The 12Z UKMET had formed a weak low that crossed west central Cuba moving NNE and then at hour 132 became a TD in the FL Straits and turned NE allowing for the center to barely miss S FL on its way out:

YJpihAK.png
 
Here's the total precip from the run through only hour 126 (pre TD status), which has it as quite a wet system even when it is just a weak low in the Caribbean with an area of 10-15" of rainfall S of Cuba and 5"+ in the Keys and along the SE coast of FL!

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Now here's the precip for the full run, which includes 12 hours of TD status and has a 2nd area of 10-15" N of Cuba:

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This UKMET TD does not have anything to do with the NHC TWO mentioned trough that is now in the NW Caribbean heading for the Yucatan. Rather, it is a followup weak low that comes to S of Cuba moving N several days later as per this hour 84 map showing the little gray area S of Cuba while the NHC weak surface trough/low is then already over the Yucatan at 1008 mb:

bVT0Zav.png
 
Oh, and here is something else I just noticed. The 12Z EPS, which is anything but genesis happy, is about the most active run yet and has a whopping 10 of 51 (20%) members with a sub 1000 mb low at some point forming from this FOLLOWUP low, not the one being watched in the NHC TWO! Two members hit S FL as a H and one hits SE LA as a H. One of the ones that hits S FL then comes back for a 2nd H landfall at Canaveral and then a 3rd one on the Panhandle from the Gulf! Three hit MX after going into the Bay of Campeche. Also, at the end of the run, there are 2 of these 10 still lurking in the GOM. Things are suddenly getting a bit more interesting for the follow-up area:

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