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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

18Z GEFS for the wave near 41W (not the one just off Africa): more TCs than prior runs/Mexico bound...good chance the US would get lucky with this one due to the very strong ridging above it though Mexico would take a hit but still a long ways out/danger to US would be if this were to form near the Bahamas or form early (east of the Lesser Antilles) and then move WNW north of the GAs
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Big troughs are good and bad its all about the timing...a big trough that moves off NE at the right time slams the door on a big cane and turns it NW right into the SE, typically that's how all the bad hits have happened......
 
Seems like it’s been many many years since we had a strong hurricane cross the entire Caribbean Sea. If ever. (Cat 3 or stronger the entire length).
 
Looks like a Caribbean cruiser in the making near 10N 50W.

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lexxnchloe said:
Cool, i think the season might be done. Lets hope so.
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Everywhere there is a red L and a number that is over water is an opportunity for something to spin up. NHC is watching 2 waves because it's likely they will spin up. The season is not even half over. Extremely likely that several more storms will hit the US......we are only trying to track the risk in a specific area.....and with the current conditions, one may spin up out of the blue with no warning of a red L...
Btw....GFS sucks at genesis, until its apparent.....icon and CMC have done much much better...
 
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12z CMC runs the Carribean cruiser to ground....and then moves the 2 others around the board.....

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That East Central Atlantic wave is looking better by the hour looping sats. Also note the SAL is loosing its punch to keep the CV waves in check. Week ago it was everywhere basin wide.

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Henry2326 said:
I alluded to this earlier....

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No surprise. Sometimes I'll read folks saying the heat content is high, the warmth is deep, upwelling won't lead to much cooling etc. It doesn' t matter. Strong storms like Laura almost have to cause notable cooling not necessarily because of upwelling itself but because of the conservation of energy principle. TCs take energy from the warm ocean and convert it to kinetic energy (wind). Stronger storms take more out than weaker ones. Guess what has to happen when the energy in the form of warmth is taken from the ocean. It cools.
 
GaWx said:
No surprise. Sometimes I'll read folks saying the heat content is high, the warmth is deep, upwelling won't lead to much cooling etc. It doesn' t matter. Strong storms like Laura almost have to cause notable cooling not necessarily because of upwelling itself but because of the conservation of energy principle. TCs take energy from the warm ocean and convert it to kinetic energy (wind). Stronger storms take more out than weaker ones. Guess what has to happen when the energy in the form of warmth is taken from the ocean. It cools.
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Thoughts on how long it would take to warm back up, if another goes through that area? Fairly shallow in that area....
 
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