October storms are usually not as bad as August or September in the US. Opal was one notable exception. South FL is a different story though as they can still get bad canes in Oct. I think Wilma hit in Oct.
Hurricane Michael???
October storms are usually not as bad as August or September in the US. Opal was one notable exception. South FL is a different story though as they can still get bad canes in Oct. I think Wilma hit in Oct.
Yea, oct is fla timeHurricane Michael???
As you speak, the EPS is much more bearish than the last two runs:
Forward -> Backwards
View attachment 47257
That's why this is called "2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion"I think trying to predict what October will bring is a bit premature. We’re still in August. It’s 2020. And we’re dealing with a record setting Hurricane season.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That's why this is called "2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion"
I see what your sayingFair enough. But that isn't my point. Trying to figure out October when we're not even in September is kind of counterproductive. It's perfectly fine to have opinions of what October has in store. But to say, "Hurricanes only hit FL in Oct" is false. Climatology speaking, yes the odds of a Hugo, Isabel, etc are rarer. But not impossible. My whole point is it's 2020, so nothing is off the table at this point.
Some people get Impatient.The peak isn't even for 2 weeks and there's a second peak in October usually
Some people get Impatient.
So basically, if you didn't know, these are EPS members, which is data from the Euro model, but with different starting positions, so you get more of a spread of what can happen. The Euro model shows nothing, but there are several member solutions that show a storm 1-2 weeks out. As I mentioned in my post, that chance of there being a storm is going down. The first image was the latest run, showing all of the members combined, while the next two were last night, then yesterday's run.Can you go into more detail? Iread the euro model shows nothing yet on there i see a bunch of storms.
Ollie,FWIW, the 00z GFS develops that wave the EPS was bullish on. 971mb hurricane stalling off in the Atlantic.
View attachment 47317