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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Invest 97L only has a 10% chance of development thru 48-120 hours... Imo, this is well on its way already to becoming a tropical cyclone. Semi-persistent, axisymmetric, and laterally confined convection near what may be a remnant mesoscale convective vortex plus the fact that it's small and already has a lot of pre-existing shear vorticity to work w/...

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have persisted during the past several
hours in association with a small low pressure system located about
midway between Florida and Bermuda. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while the low
moves generally east-northeastward. By Sunday night, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss potential
tropical development of low pressure system southwest of Bermuda.

An area of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of a small
low pressure system located more than 300 miles southwest of
Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that
winds have increased and that the circulation has become better
defined. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical
depression could form overnight or early Saturday while the system
moves eastward at about 15 mph. By Sunday night, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart
 
Pretty solid outflow kicking out to the east of the wave this morning. Even with that though there seems to be at least a mlc to the west maybe a llc. It doesn't look too bad honestly
 
Shaggy said:
I'd be much more excited if this was gonna get east of Florida stall out then develop on a NNW headings. Most skirters like this rarely give me anything of interest.
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If that trough behind it were digging harder or getting left behind we could have some fun
 
Yet another lemon has appeared. Very low chance of development as of now.74B711E5-297E-4B51-80E1-5EDD9D826551.png
2. A strong tropical wave, centered about 700 miles east of the
Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible
on Monday before environmental conditions become hostile for
development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall
as well as gusty winds on some of those islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Brent said:
With Edouard probably being named tonight we are ahead of the infamous 2005 season

Now granted 2005 had a major hurricane by now but still
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Just wait until September. At this rate, we will probably have 4 active storms in 1 basin. I just expect and fear that because of this year being this year we will see a cat 5 just shred some coastal city or do damage on the level of one.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just wait until September. At this rate, we will probably have 4 active storms in 1 basin. I just expect and fear that because of this year being this year we will see a cat 5 just shred some coastal city or do damage on the level of one.
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Right with the way this year has been going with practically everything else nothing would surprise me

Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna are next
 
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All,

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This is a classic vertical cross section for the peak of the West African monsoon season showing the low-mid level African Easterly Jet & tropopause-level Tropical Easterly Jet, both are created & maintained by anomalous meridional heating distributions over Africa & SE Asia respectively. The unique configuration of very warm land masses slightly poleward of relatively cooler equatorial ocean water as well as topography & surface vegetation makes this all happen. Both the AEJ & TEJ play a significant role in the development of African Easterly Waves which comprise the overwhelming majority of tropical cyclone formations & an even larger proportion of strong TCs in the Atlantic basin.

Screen Shot 2020-07-16 at 8.36.23 PM.png
 
Have a couple areas to possibly watch nothing is imminent but for closer to home there are signs of something in the Gulf by the end of the week headed for Texas (I'll be in Galveston Monday-Friday) so I'll definitely be watching that

cvFxLYg.png
 
Brent said:
Have a couple areas to possibly watch nothing is imminent but for closer to home there are signs of something in the Gulf by the end of the week headed for Texas (I'll be in Galveston Monday-Friday) so I'll definitely be watching that

View attachment 44449
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I seen that in the models, icon has it too
 
1. A tropical wave located over eastern Hispaniola and the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move
west-northwestward over the next several days and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across
the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday. This disturbance is currently producing only minimal
shower activity, but environmental conditions are expected to become
at least marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_atl_5d0.png
 
And then there were two...
53B8F061-4F44-4CD0-B493-3D0F3EA46416.png
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Bahamas,
central Cuba, and adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for development of this system over the Gulf of Mexico.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the
Straits of Florida today, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday, across the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the
northwestern Gulf on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
125CF3B6-EBAC-4ECC-ABD7-1DE6AC668AD2.png

A tropical wave located more than 900 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development of this system during the next
few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.CD381595-4478-4A68-85A0-A53AB1AED601.png
 
BufordWX said:
And then there were two...
View attachment 44581
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Bahamas,
central Cuba, and adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for development of this system over the Gulf of Mexico.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the
Straits of Florida today, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday, across the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the
northwestern Gulf on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
View attachment 44580

A tropical wave located more than 900 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development of this system during the next
few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.View attachment 44579
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Three now...
5DA1E793-3DAE-4C91-913E-B06C977E6F92.png
3. Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area has
formed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and little
additional development is expected before the system moves inland
over Texas tonight or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_066.png
Some support, also notices gfs has been trending north a bit.
 
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