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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Looks like we got a new Lemon. Low chance of development though.
88CBCA46-0102-460A-AE51-77065C41544A.png
1. A well-defined tropical wave is located about 425 miles east of the
Windward Islands, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although further development is not expected due to dry air and
adverse upper-level winds, some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds
are possible across portions of the Windward Islands on Thursday
and Thursday night while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
I've seen worse AOIs. Convection is definitely being sheared, and it's becoming block-like. Maybe it can find a pocket.
tropicaltidbits.com

IR Satellite Loop for Central Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits

Central Atlantic IR Satellite Loop
tropicaltidbits.com tropicaltidbits.com

Dry air is certainly a factor on water vapor, but I'd call this a pretty darn good environment for early June. Personally, I never like seeing dry air between a struggling PTC and the ITZC.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL) - GOES-16 Mid-Level Water Vapor - Latest Available

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

Saharan Air Layer (SAL) - GOES-16 Split Window - Latest Available

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
 
This is new.
28432B27-5C69-4DBA-B613-9B440FA6B847.png

Code: 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small non-tropical low pressure system located east of the Georgia
coast is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over
the Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northward overnight
and be located offshore near the South Carolina-North Carolina
border by Tuesday morning. Although environmental conditions are
forecast to be unfavorable for any significant development, this
system could briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics before
it moves inland Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
 
Africa has been extremely wet since the beginning of May, parts of the West African coast have been running 200-400% of normal!

In concert w/ La Nina, the above normal precip anomalies are indicative of more stronger & frequent African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and this is likely a harbinger of a very active Cape Verde hurricane season to come this season. We'll probably see many long-tracked hurricanes in August & September

 
Webberweather53 said:
Africa has been extremely wet since the beginning of May, parts of the West African coast have been running 200-400% of normal!

In concert w/ La Nina, the above normal precip anomalies are indicative of more stronger & frequent African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and this is likely a harbinger of a very active Cape Verde hurricane season to come this season. We'll probably see many long-tracked hurricanes in August & September

Click to expand...


I don’t doubt that the chance for an active CV season is higher than normal. I just hope all of the long trackers recurve between Bermuda and the US east coast. The SE US could sure use a break, regardless of COVID.
 
BHS1975 said:
If we keep getting these cutoff lows you can forget about recurves.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The only thing we can say for sure is over time the majority recurve overall based on climo. Too hard to link cold rainy days pulling these storms inland.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
The only thing we can say for sure is over time the majority recurve overall based on climo. Too hard to link cold rainy days pulling these storms inland.
Click to expand...

That's kind of like saying grass is green. Eventually troughs become so prevalent later in the year that plenty of paths are carved open for TCs to go north.

What do you think this year looks like?
 
Another lemon with a low chance of development appears...
0BDF5657-6FDE-4BDB-B2E0-EE3CCEAABD7B.png
2. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles east of
Trinidad and Tobago are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next
couple of days before upper level winds become less conducive and
the system begins to interact with the landmass of South America.
Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds and
heavy rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago and the northeastern
coastal sections of Venezuela through the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Triple code orange threat in the east pacific. Imagine the Atlantic having three areas this year. Maybe four let’s do it 2020
 
You know considering how crazy 2020 has been, I wouldn't be surprised if the 2020 hurricane season breaks the all-time record for named storms.
 
4 named storms already and it's June 23rd. Interestingly though the previous seasons to have 4 named storms before June (2012 and 2016) both had no tropical cyclones form during July at all.
 
God been hoping north Georgia finally gets destroyed this is the year those mtns come down
 
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