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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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I pay little attention to met winter. When fantasy land presents gifts to our eyes, that's when I engage, win or lose.
 
Again, LR ensembles have been saying cutter for days. I do think, however, that we could end up with some cold, and I wouldn't go to sleep with the massive ULL. Regardless, I think we should wait a few days/weeks to see what changes, then when we get some more HP over the NE, then get excited.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Again, LR ensembles have been saying cutter for days. I do think, however, that we could end up with some cold, and I wouldn't go to sleep with the massive ULL. Regardless, I think we should wait a few days/weeks to see what changes, then when we get some more HP over the NE, then get excited.
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When you were referring to the ridge in SE Canada was that feature better off near Greenland for blocking?
 
GaStorm said:
When you were referring to the ridge in SE Canada was that feature better off near Greenland for blocking?
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This is what we have:
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7061600.png
This is what we need to trend towards:
BCDCE723-3DC6-4AA5-849F-1D898AA90273.png
I don't see this happening within the next 10 days due to the model consistency, but I wouldn't rule it out in the LR.
 
SD said:
Oh no a winter threat on 12/1 may not work
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Yeah, just to clarify since I sounded a little brusque. Models have been looking with the jet, and trough in the SE, but overall, not a snowy setup. Things haven't necessarily changed, it's just we've gotten close enough to the models that the notation is reflected.
 
SimeonNC said:
Am I the only one not worried about individual storms, like we literally have the best pattern in years ahead of us. Relax.

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And its not going to produce squat! Great pattern or bad pattern our snow chances are pretty much the same. Very low at any given time.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, just to clarify since I sounded a little brusque. Models have been looking with the jet, and trough in the SE, but overall, not a snowy setup. Things haven't necessarily changed, it's just we've gotten close enough to the models that the notation is reflected.
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It's not you lol it's just weird that people got into eeyore mode about threats in later November/early December. Geez
 
What we need to happen, is given that we’re probably gonna deal with a ridge in SE Canada, we’re gonna have to time and position a piece of energy just right To dig and to go -tilt (around WNC is a good spot) while euro wasn’t so good, there was still a mean on the EPS which still reflects that there’s some potential2FAC30A0-CEA5-45D3-8AE4-3678EC910F5C.png
 
02a157f7c2ae44dc1bdd5a76c73fd243.gif



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