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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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smast16 said:
Well poop, Belated good luck. You're a smart dude, hope they realize the chance they have with you.
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Thanks. Yeah really hoping I get it, Flagstaff, AZ is a snow weenie's paradise, averaging 100" of snow per year, plus unlike up north in Canada and Alaska in places it does snow like this, you don't have to deal w/ losing a ton of daylight hours either and the summers are actually nice. We shall see, a position like that one is very competitive and everything works out for a reason.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thanks. Yeah really hoping I get it, Flagstaff, AZ is a snow weenie's paradise, averaging 100" of snow per year, plus unlike up north in Canada and Alaska in places it does snow like this, you don't have to deal w/ losing a ton of daylight hours either and the summers are actually nice. We shall see, a position like that one is very competitive and everything works out for a reason.
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They get a lot of sunshine too i believe. So it wouldn't be a gloomy, cold, snowy winter like you would get in a lot of areas.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thanks. Yeah really hoping I get it, Flagstaff, AZ is a snow weenie's paradise, averaging 100" of snow per year, plus unlike up north in Canada and Alaska in places it does snow like this, you don't have to deal w/ losing a ton of daylight hours either and the summers are actually nice. We shall see, a position like that one is very competitive and everything works out for a reason.
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Good luck. Flagstaff is beautiful!
 
GaStorm said:
I'm a bit confused on why Larry says the evidence is there for a crappy pattern next month when the models say otherwise. Am I missing something?
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I said this in the Dec thread:

"There are a bunch of folks out there with their heads in the sand still believing we'll have a cold December despite no evidence supporting that idea and plenty of evidence going the other way."


What model(s) is (are) predicting a cold December? If there are some, please post them. Also, I've seen only warmer than normal predicted for the SE for Dec as a whole on any models that I've viewed.

Any prediction I was referring to here was for December as a whole, not just the first few days and/or a few days in the middle or whenever that could be cold. Keep in mind that I've repeatedly said that even a mild winter would still likely have a couple of cold weeks interspersed. It never is black and white (all cold or all mild). In the same light, a few cold days in an otherwise mild dominated month would be very likely.

When I said plenty of evidence going the other way, I'm not just referring to models, which have most often been cold biased but still whose monthlies for Dec have been showing at least a little warmer than normal. I'm also referring to analogs. In addition, I'm referring to nonbiased pro mets, including one I talk to regularly who has been spot on and who has repeatedly predicted Dec will be mild.

Evidence can foretell an outcome. Evidentiary strength reveals probabilities. But evidence is not a guarantee of an outcome. In that light, I've never promised or assured what Dec will provide. I just offered a best and reasoned estimate based on available data, my own knowledge and experience, and objective pro met knowledge shared with me.
 
GaWx said:
I said this in the Dec thread:

"There are a bunch of folks out there with their heads in the sand still believing we'll have a cold December despite no evidence supporting that idea and plenty of evidence going the other way."


What model(s) is (are) predicting a cold December? If there are some, please post them. Also, I've seen only warmer than normal predicted for the SE for Dec as a whole on any models that I've viewed.

Any prediction I was referring to here was for December as a whole, not just the first few days and/or a few days in the middle or whenever that could be cold. Keep in mind that I've repeatedly said that even a mild winter would still likely have a couple of cold weeks interspersed. It never is black and white (all cold or all mild). In the same light, a few cold days in an otherwise mild dominated month would be very likely.

When I said plenty of evidence going the other way, I'm not just referring to models, which have most often been cold biased but still whose monthlies for Dec have been showing at least a little warmer than normal. I'm also referring to analogs. In addition, I'm referring to nonbiased pro mets, including one I talk to regularly who has been spot on and who has repeatedly predicted Dec will be mild.

Evidence can foretell an outcome. Evidentiary strength reveals probabilities. But evidence is not a guarantee of an outcome. In that light, I've never promised or assured what Dec will provide. I just offered a best and reasoned estimate based on available data, my own knowledge and experience, and objective pro met knowledge shared with me.
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Goodness man it wasn’t a personal attack.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Flagstaff gets over 70% of possible sunshine in the winter months. Incredible considering they get so much snow. Sounds like a great climate. Lots of snow plus lots of sun at the same time.
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Yeah exactly, when it's not snowing in the winter, it's beautiful and sunny, can't beat it. Plus it's an absolutely gorgeous area and close to so many natural wonders and beauties (Grand Canyon for ex less than 2 hours away). From the few times I've been there, I got the impression Flagstaff was very similar scenery-wise to the southern Sierra Nevada in California.
 
GaWx said:
I said this in the Dec thread:

"There are a bunch of folks out there with their heads in the sand still believing we'll have a cold December despite no evidence supporting that idea and plenty of evidence going the other way."


What model(s) is (are) predicting a cold December? If there are some, please post them. Also, I've seen only warmer than normal predicted for the SE for Dec as a whole on any models that I've viewed.

Any prediction I was referring to here was for December as a whole, not just the first few days and/or a few days in the middle or whenever that could be cold. Keep in mind that I've repeatedly said that even a mild winter would still likely have a couple of cold weeks interspersed. It never is black and white (all cold or all mild). In the same light, a few cold days in an otherwise mild dominated month would be very likely.

When I said plenty of evidence going the other way, I'm not just referring to models, which have most often been cold biased but still whose monthlies for Dec have been showing at least a little warmer than normal. I'm also referring to analogs. In addition, I'm referring to nonbiased pro mets, including one I talk to regularly who has been spot on and who has repeatedly predicted Dec will be mild.

Evidence can foretell an outcome. Evidentiary strength reveals probabilities. But evidence is not a guarantee of an outcome. In that light, I've never promised or assured what Dec will provide. I just offered a best and reasoned estimate based on available data, my own knowledge and experience, and objective pro met knowledge shared with me.
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you never write up long responses to me when I post why are you trying to give him more attention than me is that your second troll account
 
GaWx said:
Who said it was a personal attack? I think it is more like a robust though respectful and intelligent debate. I just made a long thought out and respectful post defending the post of mine that is being questioned by GaStorm to clarify my thinking.
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Nobody did, I just felt it was a little much. I guess stuff just gets lost in translation on the internet. My bad
 
GaWx said:
I said this in the Dec thread:

"There are a bunch of folks out there with their heads in the sand still believing we'll have a cold December despite no evidence supporting that idea and plenty of evidence going the other way."


What model(s) is (are) predicting a cold December? If there are some, please post them. Also, I've seen only warmer than normal predicted for the SE for Dec as a whole on any models that I've viewed.

Any prediction I was referring to here was for December as a whole, not just the first few days and/or a few days in the middle or whenever that could be cold. Keep in mind that I've repeatedly said that even a mild winter would still likely have a couple of cold weeks interspersed. It never is black and white (all cold or all mild). In the same light, a few cold days in an otherwise mild dominated month would be very likely.

When I said plenty of evidence going the other way, I'm not just referring to models, which have most often been cold biased but still whose monthlies for Dec have been showing at least a little warmer than normal. I'm also referring to analogs. In addition, I'm referring to nonbiased pro mets, including one I talk to regularly who has been spot on and who has repeatedly predicted Dec will be mild.

Evidence can foretell an outcome. Evidentiary strength reveals probabilities. But evidence is not a guarantee of an outcome. In that light, I've never promised or assured what Dec will provide. I just offered a best and reasoned estimate based on available data, my own knowledge and experience, and objective pro met knowledge shared with me.
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Thanks for clearing up your thoughts for next month. I was referring to recent trends not showing a SER and don't believe we are locked on any one pattern atm. I think the pattern is certainly open for debate as to chances of a winter storm for someone soon as well.
 
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