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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Brent said:
Nope not falling for it lol

Dallas has never measured snow in October
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That’s why I am skeptical too. Earliest measurable snowfall in Oklahoma City was on October 26th all the way back in 1913. GFS and EURO show things happening right around that date. If we were in mid November I could start believing, but the truth of the matter is that today is October 18th.

The main thing that does intrigue me is the fact that quite a few models are showing something at least up my way. GFS and EURO and a handful of ensemble members give me something. Will have to wait and see, but it certainly isn’t out in the land of voodoo.
 
GaWx said:
Cold model biases that don't allow them to handle the strength of the SER. This is all made worse by the very warm W Pacific. Going to dominate this winter. No changes there. Going to be fun!
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You better get Santa Claus to bring you a new pair of walking shoes. Gonna need em J,F,M. Regular pair wont hold up to all those 55 to 60 degree days.
 
Looks like the next week will be unseasonably warm with upper 70s most days. Fortunately by next Tuesday we should start to see some more fall like weather.
 
I'm perfectly fine with the way things are. The last 2 years in mid October we flipped cold and stayed that way until December when the wheels fell off for the rest of winter. Maybe we can torch until December and flip cold for once? And maybe get a good 6 week stretch until mid Jan when the inevitable happens and the La Nina torch takes over.

That's the best we can hope for because things really don't look good at all. I don't have the years in front of me but every single moderate to strong La Nina that DIDN'T suck had blocking. 10-11 being one. If we have to depend on HL blocking the last decade says we're screwed.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm perfectly fine with the way things are. The last 2 years in mid October we flipped cold and stayed that way until December when the wheels fell off for the rest of winter. Maybe we can torch until December and flip cold for once? And maybe get a good 6 week stretch until mid Jan when the inevitable happens and the La Nina torch takes over.

That's the best we can hope for because things really don't look good at all. I don't have the years in front of me but every single moderate to strong La Nina that DIDN'T suck had blocking. 10-11 being one. If we have to depend on HL blocking the last decade says we're screwed.
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Yeah some of the complainers have short memories
 
Buddy in Iowa sent this
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I would think that even in Des Moines a Snow Squall Warning in Mid October is very unusual.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nice signal for the MJO to go into PH7-8 into November, even a signal on the analogs, time for “only if Was a month later” setups View attachment 50677
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Its just setting up to be back around to the warm phases by December where it can loop de loop until March!
 
accu35 said:
Crazy thing is gfs and euro has been consistent with this scenario
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I’ve seen it before where the Euro and Gfs lock onto a storm only to lose it at the last second. Especially given the time of year I won’t be sold unless I see some sort of wintry precipitation falling from the sky.
 
BufordWX said:
I’ve seen it before where the Euro and Gfs lock onto a storm only to lose it at the last second. Especially given the time of year I won’t be sold unless I see some sort of wintry precipitation falling from the sky.
[/QUOTE I've seen many times as well where models show and then disappoint but I'm saying it's crazy that it's been consistent this early with a storm.
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