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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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The GEFS has really been quite active in showing some sort of wintry weather here. At least out of the 2/3 of the members shown on COD. There are quite a few big storms on them.EC505832-87BD-4C67-90E9-35BDB79064C0.png
 
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^Hope we get that this go around, only with temps in mid teens, and it stays on the ground for 2 weeks... the rest of the winter can be warm for all i would care.
 
smast16 said:
I swear i'm laughing at the hilarity of it all behind my tears of crushed dreams.

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I'm trying not to get mad because I know we need to flip the script from the past 2 years and torch end of October and November and see where that gets us come winter. But deep down I have a sinking feeling regardless of what Nov does we're going to find ourselves in the same sinking ship come winter!
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm trying not to get mad because I know we need to flip the script from the past 2 years and torch end of October and November and see where that gets us come winter. But deep down I have a sinking feeling regardless of what Nov does we're going to find ourselves in the same sinking ship come winter!
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It will be funny if it stays warm and doesn't flip until March.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
It will be funny if it stays warm and doesn't flip until March.
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That would be hard to imagine. But nothing surprises me when it comes to finding ways to be warm around here! I could be wrong but it seems like when I was younger staring at TWC, patterns good or bad didn't lock in like they do now. Seems every 2-4 weeks you could guarantee it to flip.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm trying not to get mad because I know we need to flip the script from the past 2 years and torch end of October and November and see where that gets us come winter. But deep down I have a sinking feeling regardless of what Nov does we're going to find ourselves in the same sinking ship come winter!
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I too worry that once we flip, that's all she wrote. It's so hard for us to dig out of that hole once its there. Last year I think my coldest stretch was that November cold snap. Once that SER sets up shop over head, it doesn't budge.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm trying not to get mad because I know we need to flip the script from the past 2 years and torch end of October and November and see where that gets us come winter. But deep down I have a sinking feeling regardless of what Nov does we're going to find ourselves in the same sinking ship come winter!
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I'm actually happy with this (and the forecasted) pattern. Some on here know my feelings that a cold late October and start to November is a death wish for winter. We don't want see early November cold shots (..with SC midlands snow). We want to hear folks complaining that they'll never see a freeze this year and a few that jump the cliff early. I'm sure anybody in the SC midlands would disagree...
 
FallsLake said:
I'm actually happy with this (and the forecasted) pattern. Some on here know my feelings that a cold late October and start to November is a death wish for winter. We don't want see early November cold shots (..with SC midlands snow). We want to hear folks complaining that they'll never see a freeze this year and a few that jump the cliff early. I'm sure anybody in the SC midlands would disagree...
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same here. I actually looked into this earlier today but there does seem to be some correlation to warmNovember and a flip to cold for December and January.

Not all of them but most winters since 2014 had a similar pattern of:

Warm october
Cool novemner
Warm December and often that bleeds into a warm January

obviously it’s not quite as clear cut as that but that has been a theme.

so far we look to break that going into a warm start to November. Let’s keep it up. At this point I’ll take anything that’s not the same as the last few winters.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
same here. I actually looked into this earlier today but there does seem to be some correlation to warmNovember and a flip to cold for December and January.

Not all of them but most winters since 2014 had a similar pattern of:

Warm october
Cool novemner
Warm December and often that bleeds into a warm January

obviously it’s not quite as clear cut as that but that has been a theme.

so far we look to break that going into a warm start to November. Let’s keep it up. At this point I’ll take anything that’s not the same as the last few winters.
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I don't understand why a warm Oct would lead to a cold Nov but a warm Dec wouldnt lead to a cold Jan ? Do patterns lock in more in the winter than in the fall ?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I don't understand why a warm Oct would lead to a cold Nov but a warm Dec wouldnt lead to a cold Jan ? Do patterns lock in more in the winter than in the fall ?
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To be honest I’m not entirely sure. But it’s hard to just use any set time period for weather patterns. Those patterns are repetitive but not strictly held to any time period.

We do often see our winter pattern show in December and then repeat through January and February. My uneducated guess would be that the “step down” processes of fall can see more volatility and then as we bottom out in northern hemisphere winter we often see the same pattern repeat until we start changing toward spring.

Same thing can be said for summer as the SE ridge dominants for a couple months most years.
 
The pessimism and rage about a winter that is still 1.5 months away is astounding lol! Suppose this winter is warm , y’all are only extending the season of misery for yourselves more than it should . That’s assuming it’s warm lol.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Nah. I still say you will get hammered with snow.
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The 18z GFS looks like it will give me something still, but without support of the Euro it’s hard to get too excited. Not completely given up yet though. Euro might reverse course tonight. If it stands pat through tomorrow then I surrender.
 
BufordWX said:
The 18z GFS looks like it will give me something still, but without support of the Euro it’s hard to get too excited. Not completely given up yet though. Euro might reverse course tonight. If it stands pat through tomorrow then I surrender.
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If the euro reverses course tonight fire up the thread
 
Lickwx said:
The pessimism and rage about a winter that is still 1.5 months away is astounding lol! Suppose this winter is warm , y’all are only extending the season of misery for yourselves more than it should . That’s assuming it’s warm lol.
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You ain't seen nothing yet. Wait until the last week of January and we're still snowless starting at the 15 day EPS showing and endless SER! That's when it'll get real in here!
 
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