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2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Excellent point. I agree with you that winter forecasts rely too heavily on ENSO as there are other very important factors to consider like the dominating Dewpoint Dan...I mean the dominating SER. The SER in recent years hasn't varied much with ENSO because the very warm W Pacific has been in charge and will likely be again this winter.
I think its way more factors than just that. The W Pac warmth has only been recently.. Greenland blocking has been on a hiatus in winter pretty much since Dec 2010! The SER and NAO seem to be directly related. Find out what's wrong with the NAO and you'd have your answer. I know individual snowstorms aren't as dependent on the NAO, but sustained cold clearly is in the SE. Even the 13-14 -EPO winter averaged slightly above average temp wise since everything was transient and the SER flexed up. The warmth between the cold shots was offset the cold shots.
 

BufordWX

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I don’t know about anyone else, but the last few days have gotten me into the winter mood. Being In Oklahoma is probably helping that. The cold weather right now is probably also helping. Curious to see if I might get any wintry precipitation anytime soon.

Edit: looking at the 18z GEFS also helped to get me in the mood, but that’s another story.
 

Dewpoint Dan

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I don’t know about anyone else, but the last few days have gotten me into the winter mood. Being In Oklahoma is probably helping that. The cold weather right now is probably also helping. Curious to see if I might get any wintry precipitation anytime soon.

Edit: looking at the 18z GEFS also helped to get me in the mood, but that’s another story.
Im sure Oklahoma will get a Blizzard while you are back in Georgia.
 

BufordWX

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Im sure Oklahoma will get a Blizzard while you are back in Georgia.
That would be unfortunate, but it is what it is. I think I got a pretty good plan for winter though. From now until thanksgiving I could see something here. Then being in Georgia until late January I am going to bank on a front loaded southeast winter and then I will be back in Oklahoma just in time for for the inevitable super SER where I may be able to score again in February or March.
 

BufordWX

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That would be unfortunate, but it is what it is. I think I got a pretty good plan for winter though. From now until thanksgiving I could see something here. Then being in Georgia until late January I am going to bank on a front loaded southeast winter and then I will be back in Oklahoma just in time for for the inevitable super SER where I may be able to score again in February or March.
I got into the mood to look into OKC snow extremes and found some interesting stuff.

The snowiest month I could find for OKC was March 1924 when 20.7 inches of snow fell.
Also February 1st through February 8th 1905 is the record for the most consecutive days with accumulating snowfall in the city.

Of course those are very old, but it would be a treat to see them broken. Lol
 

Brent

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I don’t know about anyone else, but the last few days have gotten me into the winter mood. Being In Oklahoma is probably helping that. The cold weather right now is probably also helping. Curious to see if I might get any wintry precipitation anytime soon.

Edit: looking at the 18z GEFS also helped to get me in the mood, but that’s another story.
Same here yesterday and today you can just tell winter is coming

I am fine with no wintry threats til December though last couple years in November and then winter sucked

I mean even if it's above average there's gonna be cold snaps and seeing these pretty amazing fronts already has me wondering for sure what it's gonna be like
 

accu35

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Same here yesterday and today you can just tell winter is coming

I am fine with no wintry threats til December though last couple years in November and then winter sucked

I mean even if it's above average there's gonna be cold snaps and seeing these pretty amazing fronts already has me wondering for sure what it's gonna be like
Your right, seeing the fronts coming through and plus what the models are showing tells me this winter may have something totally different than a typical nina
 

BufordWX

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Same here yesterday and today you can just tell winter is coming

I am fine with no wintry threats til December though last couple years in November and then winter sucked

I mean even if it's above average there's gonna be cold snaps and seeing these pretty amazing fronts already has me wondering for sure what it's gonna be like
GFS giving you some fantasy land love as well. Tis the season. D658B0CA-E74D-41C2-A690-F035BD7A485D.png
 
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