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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Not sure if the JS is zonal for most of the northern hemisphere right now, but temps are really plunging and a tad below normal in northern Russia from say Khatanga, Omsk, Yakutsk on east towards Magadan. Baker Lake/Yellownife Canada are also a smidge below normal too. Fairbanks/Barrow Alaska near normal, as well as Norway/Sweden/Denmark. Also, Summit Camp Greenland is running -15 to - 20 degrees F right now.

In general, Im not use to seeing temps at or below normal for such a vast area in the northern hemisphere at any one point in time.
 
Avalanche said:
Not sure if the JS is zonal for most of the northern hemisphere right now, but temps are really plunging and a tad below normal in northern Russia from say Khatanga, Omsk, Yakutsk on east towards Magadan. Baker Lake/Yellownife Canada are also a smidge below normal too. Fairbanks/Barrow Alaska near normal, as well as Norway/Sweden/Denmark.

In general, Im not use to seeing temps at or below normal for such a vast area in the northern hemisphere at any one point in time.
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-AO doing work
 
NoSnowATL said:
Way to early to jump in my opinion. La Niña winter so December- January is the time. If it looks like poop come January 15th then jump.
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Yeah I agree, it was mostly sarcasm lol. But I think the 1st half of January would be the window. December has been warm for a decade now even with La Nina so I'm not sold on a cold December. 10-11 was a strong La Nina with a cold December. But that was due to an extreme -NAO. Not sure who or what we have to sacrifice for one of those anymore?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm thinking about going ahead and cliff diving! I need to claim my spot now before it fills up down there in about 2 months from now.
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I was here first... Find your own cliff!

smast16 said:
Lol, Some (including myself) are already melting down. This way i protect myself from the heart break we all know is coming. She cant reject me if I never asked her for her number...
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Honestly I feel that winter forecasts rely too heavily on whether it’s El Niño or La Niña. There are other very important factors to consider that shouldn’t be ignored. Just using a generic La Niña pattern as your winter forecast I think isn’t wise.
 
avlsnow said:
Honestly I feel that winter forecasts rely too heavily on whether it’s El Niño or La Niña. There are other very important factors to consider that shouldn’t be ignored. Just using a generic La Niña pattern as your winter forecast I think isn’t wise.
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2018-19 was a weak El Nino, but that winter had a lot of La Nina characteristics (lethal SER). the 2011-12 was a 2nd year La Nina, but acted a lot like a raging El Nino (zonal flow all winter)
 
avlsnow said:
Honestly I feel that winter forecasts rely too heavily on whether it’s El Niño or La Niña. There are other very important factors to consider that shouldn’t be ignored. Just using a generic La Niña pattern as your winter forecast I think isn’t wise.
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Excellent point. I agree with you that winter forecasts rely too heavily on ENSO as there are other very important factors to consider like the dominating Dewpoint Dan...I mean the dominating SER. The SER in recent years hasn't varied much with ENSO because the very warm W Pacific has been in charge and will likely be again this winter.
 
SD said:
Lord have mercy. If we were at November 16th I'd actually be intrigued
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No joke every model shows that look, gfs sheared it out, but that’s actual getting me a little bit interested lol just because how cold that trough looks, aye if I can snow on November 1 2014 in SC we can make that look work, winter has begun ?
 
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