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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Not sure if the JS is zonal for most of the northern hemisphere right now, but temps are really plunging and a tad below normal in northern Russia from say Khatanga, Omsk, Yakutsk on east towards Magadan. Baker Lake/Yellownife Canada are also a smidge below normal too. Fairbanks/Barrow Alaska near normal, as well as Norway/Sweden/Denmark. Also, Summit Camp Greenland is running -15 to - 20 degrees F right now.

In general, Im not use to seeing temps at or below normal for such a vast area in the northern hemisphere at any one point in time.
 
Avalanche said:
Not sure if the JS is zonal for most of the northern hemisphere right now, but temps are really plunging and a tad below normal in northern Russia from say Khatanga, Omsk, Yakutsk on east towards Magadan. Baker Lake/Yellownife Canada are also a smidge below normal too. Fairbanks/Barrow Alaska near normal, as well as Norway/Sweden/Denmark.

In general, Im not use to seeing temps at or below normal for such a vast area in the northern hemisphere at any one point in time.
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-AO doing work
 
NoSnowATL said:
Way to early to jump in my opinion. La Niña winter so December- January is the time. If it looks like poop come January 15th then jump.
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Yeah I agree, it was mostly sarcasm lol. But I think the 1st half of January would be the window. December has been warm for a decade now even with La Nina so I'm not sold on a cold December. 10-11 was a strong La Nina with a cold December. But that was due to an extreme -NAO. Not sure who or what we have to sacrifice for one of those anymore?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm thinking about going ahead and cliff diving! I need to claim my spot now before it fills up down there in about 2 months from now.
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I was here first... Find your own cliff!

smast16 said:
Lol, Some (including myself) are already melting down. This way i protect myself from the heart break we all know is coming. She cant reject me if I never asked her for her number...
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Honestly I feel that winter forecasts rely too heavily on whether it’s El Niño or La Niña. There are other very important factors to consider that shouldn’t be ignored. Just using a generic La Niña pattern as your winter forecast I think isn’t wise.
 
avlsnow said:
Honestly I feel that winter forecasts rely too heavily on whether it’s El Niño or La Niña. There are other very important factors to consider that shouldn’t be ignored. Just using a generic La Niña pattern as your winter forecast I think isn’t wise.
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2018-19 was a weak El Nino, but that winter had a lot of La Nina characteristics (lethal SER). the 2011-12 was a 2nd year La Nina, but acted a lot like a raging El Nino (zonal flow all winter)
 
avlsnow said:
Honestly I feel that winter forecasts rely too heavily on whether it’s El Niño or La Niña. There are other very important factors to consider that shouldn’t be ignored. Just using a generic La Niña pattern as your winter forecast I think isn’t wise.
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Excellent point. I agree with you that winter forecasts rely too heavily on ENSO as there are other very important factors to consider like the dominating Dewpoint Dan...I mean the dominating SER. The SER in recent years hasn't varied much with ENSO because the very warm W Pacific has been in charge and will likely be again this winter.
 
SD said:
Lord have mercy. If we were at November 16th I'd actually be intrigued
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No joke every model shows that look, gfs sheared it out, but that’s actual getting me a little bit interested lol just because how cold that trough looks, aye if I can snow on November 1 2014 in SC we can make that look work, winter has begun ?
 
GaWx said:
Excellent point. I agree with you that winter forecasts rely too heavily on ENSO as there are other very important factors to consider like the dominating Dewpoint Dan...I mean the dominating SER. The SER in recent years hasn't varied much with ENSO because the very warm W Pacific has been in charge and will likely be again this winter.
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I think its way more factors than just that. The W Pac warmth has only been recently.. Greenland blocking has been on a hiatus in winter pretty much since Dec 2010! The SER and NAO seem to be directly related. Find out what's wrong with the NAO and you'd have your answer. I know individual snowstorms aren't as dependent on the NAO, but sustained cold clearly is in the SE. Even the 13-14 -EPO winter averaged slightly above average temp wise since everything was transient and the SER flexed up. The warmth between the cold shots was offset the cold shots.
 
I don’t know about anyone else, but the last few days have gotten me into the winter mood. Being In Oklahoma is probably helping that. The cold weather right now is probably also helping. Curious to see if I might get any wintry precipitation anytime soon.

Edit: looking at the 18z GEFS also helped to get me in the mood, but that’s another story.
 
BufordWX said:
I don’t know about anyone else, but the last few days have gotten me into the winter mood. Being In Oklahoma is probably helping that. The cold weather right now is probably also helping. Curious to see if I might get any wintry precipitation anytime soon.

Edit: looking at the 18z GEFS also helped to get me in the mood, but that’s another story.
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Im sure Oklahoma will get a Blizzard while you are back in Georgia.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im sure Oklahoma will get a Blizzard while you are back in Georgia.
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That would be unfortunate, but it is what it is. I think I got a pretty good plan for winter though. From now until thanksgiving I could see something here. Then being in Georgia until late January I am going to bank on a front loaded southeast winter and then I will be back in Oklahoma just in time for for the inevitable super SER where I may be able to score again in February or March.
 
BufordWX said:
That would be unfortunate, but it is what it is. I think I got a pretty good plan for winter though. From now until thanksgiving I could see something here. Then being in Georgia until late January I am going to bank on a front loaded southeast winter and then I will be back in Oklahoma just in time for for the inevitable super SER where I may be able to score again in February or March.
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I got into the mood to look into OKC snow extremes and found some interesting stuff.

The snowiest month I could find for OKC was March 1924 when 20.7 inches of snow fell.
Also February 1st through February 8th 1905 is the record for the most consecutive days with accumulating snowfall in the city.

Of course those are very old, but it would be a treat to see them broken. Lol
 
BufordWX said:
I don’t know about anyone else, but the last few days have gotten me into the winter mood. Being In Oklahoma is probably helping that. The cold weather right now is probably also helping. Curious to see if I might get any wintry precipitation anytime soon.

Edit: looking at the 18z GEFS also helped to get me in the mood, but that’s another story.
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Same here yesterday and today you can just tell winter is coming

I am fine with no wintry threats til December though last couple years in November and then winter sucked

I mean even if it's above average there's gonna be cold snaps and seeing these pretty amazing fronts already has me wondering for sure what it's gonna be like
 
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