Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

[shoalswxlady]

The GEFS is basically the GFS ran in lower resolution 20 different times to get a smoothed average.

Thank you for your answer.

 

[olhausen]

All this talk about how the models keep showing cold that’s never coming has me scratching my head. Today is the first day since last Thursday that temps here got out of the 30s for highs. Even that day the high was 40.1 Degrees. Only 3 days out the first 13 this month have even cracked the 50s albeit one of those days hit 60 exactly. I understand it’s not bone chilling cold but it’s been cold at least up here in northern Middle Tennessee. Also models have improved greatly for this Friday night through Monday morning for at a minimum snow showers throughout the weekend. If they improve anymore could be looking at some accumulations.

12z GFS


12z euro not as impressive but I’d take it.

 

[Metwannabe]

Thank you for your answer.

Here are a couple of links with good info about ensembles as well

What is an ensemble forecast?

Instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is run a number of times from slightly different starting conditions.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Ensemble Forecasting | METEO 3: Introductory Meteorology

www.e-education.psu.edu

 

[whatalife]

Well the 12z CFS was nice. ? ? ??

 

[GaWx]

If I had my choice of a storm it would be a February 2014 redux with a legendary CAD that reached eastern Alabama and @GaWx house down in Savannah. I'll take about 4" inches of front end snow and sleet followed by .33" freezing rain.

Say what?

 

[mrdaddyman]

Well the 12z CFS was nice. ? ? ??

Too bad it's F456, lol.

 

[FallsLake]

Well the 12z CFS was nice. ? ? ??

Day 16:

 

[shoalswxlady]

Here are a couple of links with good info about ensembles as well

What is an ensemble forecast?

Instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is run a number of times from slightly different starting conditions.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Ensemble Forecasting | METEO 3: Introductory Meteorology

www.e-education.psu.edu

Thank you.

 

[SD]

Glad the profanity filter works

 

[superjames1992]

Day 16:
View attachment 65558

Damn near perfect track for RDU.

 

[FallsLake]

Damn near perfect track for RDU.

Lol....couldn't be better. It even has cold hanging around for another event afterwards. Dream pattern for a dream model.

 

[buckinbronco]

It's fun to dream

 

[Parker]

I’m sick of this stupid ----

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks fun! ?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Anything showing up on the models the next 14 days in this great pattern?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

----

 

[Metwannabe]

Anything showing up on the models the next 14 days in this great pattern?

 

[Broken024]

Anything showing up on the models the next 14 days in this great pattern?

Here it is mr wamby

 

[SD]

I’m sick of this stupid orange

Why do you not like oranges?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

------ @SD