Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

[SD]

I've been swapped with work all day but I just browsed through like 10 pages and hot damn! I have never seen this amount of disagreement in models. Good god. What happened to the good ole days? I feel like we will eventually get a decent winter storm at some point in the southeast. But that's all I can gather after today. That awesome GFS run got me all excited. But I should of taken that with a grain of table salt. Almost 2 feet of snow from ATL to CLT. Hey, we can dream, right?

Patterns don't work like they used to, that's why the models are struggling

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

No new threads. We should keep renaming the one we just started until something sticks.

 

[BufordWX]

Might be a hot take, but I for one am a fan of the 18z GFS. Lol

 

[SD]

No new threads. We should keep renaming the one we just started until something sticks.

Mega march muffin masher

 

[SD]

I wish I lived at 240 hrs or 4500ft

 

[JHS]

Winter is over southeast of I-85 in the Carolinas and GA. Now hoping it gets 70-75 Friday for thunder.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Mega march muffin masher

If the goal posts move to March I’m out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

My optimism is dead, totally dead, completely gone, it died today at 12z after my barber pushed back my hairline, or shall I say the cold, fr Tho
My optimism is completely gone, I’m ready for spring.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just give me 3+ in cashiers tomorrow and I’ll gladly punt to 2022

 

[JHS]

No new threads. We should keep renaming the one we just started until something sticks.

It'll be a LONG thread. We might score again in about 5 years. MAYBE.

 

[SD]

If the goal posts move to March I’m out

Welp

 

[FallsLake]

The below 18z GFS map is way out in fantasy land (~day 12). Is it going to happen. probably not; or at least not how it's displayed here. The main thing to be encouraged about is at least we can still get these storms. The models wouldn't be spitting out these solutions otherwise.

 

[Deleted member 609]

My optimism is dead, totally dead, completely gone, it died today at 12z after my barber pushed back my hairline, or shall I say the cold, fr Tho
My optimism is completely gone, I’m ready for spring.

It's coming after hour 240 ?

 

[SD]

The below 18z GFS map is way out in fantasy land (~day 12). Is it going to happen. probably not; or at least not how it's displayed here. The main thing to be encouraged about is at least we can still get these storms. The models wouldn't be spitting out these solutions otherwise.
View attachment 71840

It'll be day 12 in 12 days

 

[Myfrotho704_]

As in flex he means the SER right ?

 

[Loganville Winter]

Is this the guy in Airplane pulling the plug for a few moments?

 

[Deleted member 609]

The below 18z GFS map is way out in fantasy land (~day 12). Is it going to happen. probably not; or at least not how it's displayed here. The main thing to be encouraged about is at least we can still get these storms. The models wouldn't be spitting out these solutions otherwise.
View attachment 71840

Yea if there are still fantasy storms being spit out we aren't completely dead in the water. Euro looked good at day 10 too (yes broken record).

 

[Parker]

Can’t wait to cancel my weather models subscription until next winter

 

[FallsLake]

It'll be day 12 in 12 days

Lol...That's right. It is good we're seeing chances for the next couple of weeks. Reality is we
are running out of time. If we were seeing a torch pattern at this point, we'd be talking next year.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Don’t get sucked in by the snow maps in the extended. Those will vanish soon enough. Be patient.

 

[JHS]

As in flex he means the SER right ?

He'll be changing that in a hurry. I wish this month could be like Feb 1990 so we could at least have heavy rain and severe to track.

 

[mrdaddyman]

As in flex he means the SER right ?

Has he even looked at the models today, lol?!

 

[JHS]

Hopefully March will be just as warm as 2012. Or even warmer.

 

[SD]

Hopefully March will be just as warm as 2012. Or even warmer.

Hopefully we can go ahead and get the drought started so we can hit 115 this summer

 

[cd2play]

Hopefully March will be just as warm as 2012. Or even warmer.

Nope. We’ll still be freezing our ass off probably the first half of March.

 

[Parker]

Last night I was fearful of my life and how I would keep warm with the 1+ inch of freezing rain I was going to get. Thank goodness I didn’t get a generator.

 

[JHS]

Hopefully we can go ahead and get the drought started so we can hit 115 this summer

It got to 110 somewhere in SC in 2012. Would only take 5 more to hit the mark. Augusta or Columbia could do it eventually.

Edit:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/scec/reports/20121217-South-Carolina-Maximum-Temperature.pdf

Looks like the 113 at USC in Columbia has been accepted by some so that puts us even closer.

 

[cd2play]

Watch the Euro reel us back in

 

[Loganville Winter]

Are these models based on any actual physical observations this far out? If so, what are the chances of bad intel for one run? If not, when do those observations, like weather balloons start?

 

[FallsLake]

I predict the cold will abruptly end in late February just like in 2011.

I'm in the mind set that this is it. Yes, March can produce big storms but not normally. I think the current cold pattern setup for North America is our last real chance to get a significant SE winter storm. So you could be right; pattern flips to warmer in two to three weeks, and we basically move into spring.

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Thats a lot of freezing rain y'all. This more than 10 days from now, so take with salt. View attachment 71841

These dumb solutions give me life. "What wacky ass bulls**t am I gonna see this time?" is what I tell myself every time I open up the threads to see what I've missed.

 

[Storm5]

Bunch of babies . We went from awesome 00z ensembles to crappy 12z and everyone starts bitching


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[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Wtf is brad talking about lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Cashiers with 3-6” of snow and sleet expected. Acceptable.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Bunch of babies . We went from awesome 00z ensembles to crappy 12z and everyone starts bitching


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Given the amount of fluctuation if the models look like garbage now there's not much worse than garbage we could end up as. 0Z could end up being better tonight for all we know. There's always 12Z tomorrow as well to see if a trend is legitimate.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Too soon to delete the King Kong thread? Give it another day or two?

 

[Storm5]

Too soon to delete the King Kong thread? Give it another day or two?

Nope cause it can be a severe weather thread . Winter storm doesn’t mean just snow or ice


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[Rain Cold]

The below 18z GFS map is way out in fantasy land (~day 12). Is it going to happen. probably not; or at least not how it's displayed here. The main thing to be encouraged about is at least we can still get these storms. The models wouldn't be spitting out these solutions otherwise.
View attachment 71840

About a week or two ago, I posted that I liked seeing fantasy storms on the models (as opposed to not seeing them) because it generally means the models are seeing some real cold air to work with. Whether or not anything works out is another story. But it's good at least that they think there's going to be bonafide cold air nearby.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Too soon to delete the King Kong thread? Give it another day or two?

It’ll be a King Kong super outbreak soon. Wedges

 

[whatalife]

Hopefully we can go ahead and get the drought started so we can hit 115 this summer

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