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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Afternoon update from Spann:

ICE ISSUES FRIDAY??? The combination of an active southern branch of the jet stream and a shallow layer of very cold air could open the door for some winter weather issues a week from today (Friday February 12). Wintry precipitation could begin as early as Thursday night. It is important to note that there is absolutely no way of presenting a specific forecast for this event right now. The event could bring lots of rain, followed by cold dry air with no winter impact at all. Or, parts of Alabama could see a high impact winter weather situation. It is simply too early to call.

We continue to watch ensemble output from global models, and they continue to show signals for ice issues for parts of the Deep South, but we won’t have a “first forecast” until Monday. Even then there will be a good bit of uncertainty. Just keep up with our updates over the next few days.
 
I've been swapped with work all day but I just browsed through like 10 pages and hot damn! I have never seen this amount of disagreement in models. Good god. What happened to the good ole days? I feel like we will eventually get a decent winter storm at some point in the southeast. But that's all I can gather after today. That awesome GFS run got me all excited. But I should of taken that with a grain of table salt. Almost 2 feet of snow from ATL to CLT. Hey, we can dream, right?
 
ryan1234 said:
I've been swapped with work all day but I just browsed through like 10 pages and hot damn! I have never seen this amount of disagreement in models. Good god. What happened to the good ole days? I feel like we will eventually get a decent winter storm at some point in the southeast. But that's all I can gather after today. That awesome GFS run got me all excited. But I should of taken that with a grain of table salt. Almost 2 feet of snow from ATL to CLT. Hey, we can dream, right?
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To be fair there’s not much disagreement. Models have converged on dumping the tpv in the west and hanging it up there
 
PARSONBROWN said:
No thread. Lets just roll with this one, and reel this thing in. Been burnt too many times starting a thread. My two cents. Good day
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FOR REAL!!! In all honesty though, if this thing next week Peter’s out and we have robins pecking around in our lush lawns after spring showers....I’d say this “can kicking” is a symptom of some deep seated model biases/errors. I know that way more goes into these algorithms than my mind could possibly comprehend but same error, same time frame over and over (“another 7-10 days or whatever”) intuitively demonstrates a pattern of some type. I’m not saying the big dog is dead, lord knows I am not qualified and many very knowledgeable Mets are basing their opinions off overall pattern versus each run of goofus, euro etc but if it does go away......I’m gonna follow the biggest lesson these models will have demonstrated.....”there’s always a mirage in the long range”.....not exactly science....just ole ”country common sense”?
 
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