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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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February 12, 2014 would beg to differ, and if you include NC, February 17, 2015 and March 7, 2014. The chance of frozen precipitation doesn't vanish in February like you seem to insist for some reason.
I don't remember anything for 2-12-14 when I was living in Carrollton, GA and I know I didn't see any ice in 2015. Typically Mid Feb-March is either rain or snow. I'm not saying you can't get frozen precip in Mid Feb in the deep south, but snow is much more common than ice late in the winter. Ice is largely an early-mid winter phenomenon in the deep south.
 
The wave hasn’t even been sampled yet

GFS always loses storms and brings it back.
We've still got the Canadian.
It's trended NW but it can trend back south.
We've got an -NAO, SE ridge will get beaten down.
Check out the control run!
Check out ensemble member 37!

modernweenie modernweenie
 
I will say ice, probably a lot like snow in the SE is shown too heavily on models. The model we probably trust the most is the Nam for this, and just last week it was spitting out an inch of ice in places 24hours before the event. Most place got up to .10 or so. I honestly think we spend too much time looking at these maps that will mean 0 in 6 hours, but I guess thats the hobby.
 
Not sure how less snow on the models today versus yesterday is not a worse look.
Because you look at the ensembles. Not the operational runs. Yeah the gfs op had big storms yesterday but the ensembles didn't really support it
 
I mean, it's called the ICON for a reason.

They should rename it The ICON Sting.

tenor.gif
 
I mean this is just impressive, now this is the coldest mean I’ve seen, many members last week we’re sorta spread out which hampered it, guess there’s more agreement (for now) with many EPS members View attachment 71220

Only.......you guessed it....10 days away! lol. I'm starting to think the cold never shows up honestly.

?‍♂️ modernweenie
 
I'll try ?? but that model is so good it doesn't need ensembles
I did a quick search for ICON verification numbers and couldn't find anything. Pretty sure it was the first to pick up the storm from last year from what I remember. Would be nice to see a performance chart of some kind though.
 
This site needs a dedicated chat room that is designed to be a "free for all" so that some of the cliff dwellers can go have a fit. I would pay for a ticket just to get in there and watch.
 
This site needs a dedicated chat room that is designed to be a "free for all" so that some of the cliff dwellers can go have a fit. I would pay for a ticket just to get in there and watch.
Oh man a chat room would be such a delicious disaster. I need instructions on how to make that happen
 
I put together a quick poem on our situation. Enjoy!

Here we sit watching ever so closely
waiting on a storm to change from fantasy to reality
will it be rain, sleet or snow
or will the models keep us guessing for days in a row
oh Mr. TPV will you help us please
so our winter weenies can be appeased
now we wait ever so patient
for the big dog to visit and bring snow to this part of the nation
 
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