Which winter month will likely be the biggest dumpster fire of the 3? I'm going February.
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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
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Brent
Member
Frontloaded winter probably so yeah
December
That Bamwx tweet was just what the CFS has for December, not the whole winter. Besides, even if Dec is warm, that doesn't mean there can't be cold for a few days that month which we have now, which I'd expect. The first 5 days are looking on the models to be near normal rate than torch. Fingers crossed that the SER won't screw that up!
Definitely February
December. I know this against typical La Niña climatology but the best bet is a snowless, much warmer than normal month for areas outside of the mountains.
Brent
Member
Probably not just one month tbh
On the plus side its good to have zero expectations for winter lol
Around here (central NC) December is almost always a dumpster fire. I always thought of December snow as an uncommon event rather than a common event. It was quite unusual to see substantial portions of the SE getting snow on ON THE SAME DAY in early December two years in a row. Of the past 15 years only 3 Decembers had measurable snow at RDU - 2010, 2017 (barely) and 2018. February has been much better on average
BufordWX
Member
If things go as bad as possible, at least I have already seen my winter weather for the year. I have no right to complain about winter in any way because of that.
SimeonNC
Member
Maybe it's just dumb optimism but I feel like despite everything on paper saying that it's gonna be a bad winter, I feel like it'll be pretty decent.
Remember in previous years how all those long range forecasts had us in the deep freezer for winter and it never really panned out? Apply that same logic to this winter and that's how I feel.
Remember in previous years how all those long range forecasts had us in the deep freezer for winter and it never really panned out? Apply that same logic to this winter and that's how I feel.
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm not cancelling my Denver trip in January lol it's probably gonna be the one real shot to see snow this winter unless I get lucky and a snow chase lines up when I'm off work but the odds of that happening again are probably next to zero
The La Nina and the track record lately is meh
I mean I guess you could look at it like the predictions are always wrong but I'm just over it tbh
Lately it hasn't even rained here now that may be changing but yeah
Live look the the new Euro weekly run:
NoSnowATL
Member
Might take cold rain as a win this year.
NoSnowATL
Member
Winning!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
WRAL calling for below average snow again this winter for the Triangle.
wr.al
Winter 2020 outlook: Some snow, snaps of cold
Expected snowfall is the trickiest part of the winter outlook, but if you love snow, we have some good news. In every La Niña year, we have had at least one measurable snow event and another three days or more with a trace of snow.
wr.al
Forecasting snow in this area is always tricky because one storm can make the difference between no measurable snow and above normal snowfall.WRAL calling for below average snow again this winter for the Triangle.
Winter 2020 outlook: Some snow, snaps of cold
Expected snowfall is the trickiest part of the winter outlook, but if you love snow, we have some good news. In every La Niña year, we have had at least one measurable snow event and another three days or more with a trace of snow.
BufordWX
Member
What is this ad trying to tell me?
Dewpoint Dan
Member
You might need that when you go back to Central Oklahoma the end of January !
BufordWX
Member
If I can, I will take a February 2011 repeat to go. As it turns out It was also the last strong La Niña year. ?
SWVAwxfan
Member
Brent
Member
I would kill for a February 2011 lol, it wasnt quite a blizzard down here but it would easily compare to the 2015 stretch I was talking about
That 10-11 winter was kind to a lot of folks in the South.
Brent
Member
I lived in Central Alabama then and while we had a White Christmas late on Christmas Day the January 2011 storm was a disaster... missed the heavy snow by an hour and couldn't go anywhere because of the sleet covered roads lol fail got screwed at the last minute by the NW trend...
I don't really remember much of anything in February over there
Well I-20 folks don't count.. Thats DEEP South.. heh
Brent
Member
oh but we made up for it in 2014 lmao
Weather psychology is so weird.. it's almost a weather-pathology.. It's 38 degrees and I don't care. In August or Sept I'd be desperate for a refreshing night time temp like that, now it's useless to me. I like it, but I want more... When will it ever get to Zero Fahrenheit again in Chattanooga? Things like that.
What I'd give
It's all fantasy at this point but that d16 gfs setup would leave half the board good with winter in early December
No kidding that 500mb look is up there with some classics. It would probably be rain here until the wrap around got here but lordy for parts of the region that's a double digit smash
1 member 9 please. That would probably beat my yearly average alone.
NoSnowATL
Member
Larry ?
The only pattern that has staying power here is warmth!
Biden said expect a dark winter which means temps won’t be healing as much compared to last winter. Not everyone believes him tho. Just my two cents. Colder at times.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
What the heck does Biden know about the weather ?
NoSnowATL
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Or a bird poop one lol.Posts like this call for the question emoji.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
LOL yes even better.
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