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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Seems you forgot that November cold hasn’t boded well for wintertime, this is actually a change this year, I think we switch cooler late November as ural blocking develops, and maybe that translates to some -NAO in late November/early December, feel like maybe with a AK low we may see transient periods of some +PNA in mid November, but the pattern looks ugly and zonal after next weeks system, maybe we can sneak a little ULL or something tho
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November cold absolutely hasn't boded well for cold winters lately. Call it a hunch but a warm November won't bode well for a cold winter either ?‍♂️

Only thing certain in our winters are SER problems.

In all seriousness though I cant stand that look after next week. I don't mind it being warm here.. But zonal with the cold retreating to AK no thanks.. Reminds me too much of 11-12 where there was a big storm around Halloween that dumped snow along 95 in the NE and the pattern went zonal and never looked back. And guess what? That was a moderate La Nina. We have way too much against us for a good winter. You know its bad when even the cold biased forecasters can't even find cold for the east, especially the SE.
 
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accu35 said:
wrf-arw2_asnow_scus_48.png
Dont know how good this model is but I'm hugging lol.
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Fake snow season is here!
 
tennessee storm said:
Models starting to show this la Niña getting 2.0 now. Gets much stronger going be hard for anyone in the southeast Having any winter
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It doesn't matter. We screwed up the last two weak El Ninos that are supposed to be our bread and butter. Seems until whatever is causing the NAO to be raging positive all winter every year changes and we lose the warm waters around the Maritime continent we're doomed. I don't know what else it could be honestly. Regardless of QBO, SAI, solar minimum, Enso state or any other index you can think of it's still the same result. A +++NAO and horrible MJO and we're left with our ole buddy the SER.
 
accu35 said:
I must be slam out of my mind to chase this???. I will send pics
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Hoping you get to experience some good weather. I will say that I think there is a chance tomorrow overachieves though. Most people are talking about tomorrow night into Tuesday around here, but tomorrow morning and afternoon has sneaky potential If temperatures end up a bit colder then forecast.

As a matter of fact the HRRR has been trending a tad colder all day. It has OKC around freezing near late morning-early afternoon. The Winter storm watch (or whatever it becomes Warning/advisory) doesn’t even start until 7:00 PM. I’ve also been watching the temperature trends and the freezing line is already approaching areas around Woodward. OUN didn’t have them dipping below freezing until after midnight.
 
Heck, I'm taking my wife???? she hates the cold and thinks I'm on a "business" trip. She has no idea how cold its gonna be. I told her just to bring a jacket
 
My snow chase in Wichita Falls in February started off super icy I thought my brakes were going out at first lol

It lasted way longer than expected and cut into the snow totals too
 
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